土地集约利用与城镇化协调发展评价及障碍因子诊断
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国家自然科学基金项目(71503103)、安徽省科技创新战略与软科学研究项目(201806a02020058)和安徽省高校人文社会科学研究重大项目(SK2016SD60)


Evaluation of Coordinated Development between Land Intensive Use and Urbanization and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors
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    摘要:

    为了探究土地集约利用与城镇化的耦合协调关系,促进两者协调发展,以安徽省为例,首先,运用熵权TOPSIS模型,分别评价安徽省2000—2017年土地集约利用与城镇化绩效水平,研判两者的绩效水平及其子系统变化趋势;然后,运用耦合度和协调度模型,基于耦合作用系数的取值变化,探讨不同情形下安徽省土地集约利用与城镇化协调发展关系及变化趋势;最后,运用障碍度模型,诊断影响安徽省土地集约利用与城镇化协调发展的障碍因子。结果表明:2000—2017年,安徽省土地集约利用与城镇化水平均呈逐年上升态势,稳中趋好。2000—2017年安徽省土地集约利用绩效水平从0.0536增至0.9587,年均增长18.49%;安徽省城镇化水平从0.2715增至0.8180,年均增长6.70%。从土地集约利用各子系统来看,经济绩效子系统对土地集约利用的贡献最大,生态绩效子系统对土地集约利用的贡献最小,权重分别为0.3526和0.1308;从城镇化各子系统来看,经济城镇化子系统对城镇化水平影响最大,生态城镇化子系统对城镇化水平影响最小,权重分别为0.4160和0.1377。在不同耦合作用系数取值情形下,安徽省土地集约利用与城镇化协调发展关系变化趋势除2005年和2012年略有不同外,其余16年两者协调发展变化趋势和协调类型完全相同,说明耦合作用系数对两者协调发展关系的影响十分有限。2000—2017年安徽省土地集约利用与城镇化的协调发展度呈逐年增长态势。从各子系统障碍度来看,土地集约利用经济子系统对安徽省土地集约利用与城镇化协调发展的影响最大,年均障碍度为16.48%;生态城镇化子系统对两者协调发展的影响最小,年均障碍度为6.60%。从各指标障碍度来看,2011年及以前,影响两者协调发展的障碍因子主要包括人民生活水平、地均财政收入和人均GDP;2012年及以后,影响两者协调发展的障碍因子主要包括城乡人均可支配收入差距和城镇人口密度。从各年份前5位障碍因子变化来看,各指标对土地集约利用与城镇化协调发展的影响可以分为2个阶段:第1阶段(2000—2013年)以土地集约利用的影响为主,第2阶段(2014—2017年)以城镇化的影响为主。本研究为研判土地集约利用与城镇化协调发展水平及诊断障碍因子提供了新的思路和方法,可为促进安徽省及同类省域土地集约利用与城镇化协调发展提供借鉴。

    Abstract:

    The coordinated development of land intensive use and urbanization plays an important role in promoting economic development. In order to explore the coupling and coordination relationship between land intensive use and urbanization and promote their coordinated development, the performance evaluation index system of land intensive use and urbanization was constructed respectively, and the evaluation index system of coordinated development of land intensive use and urbanization was established on the basis. The land intensive use performance evaluation index system included four subsystems: economic performance, social performance, ecological performance and management performance, and the index system of urbanization performance evaluation included four subsystems: population urbanization, economic urbanization, social urbanization and ecological urbanization. Anhui Province was taken as an example. The TOPSIS model was used to evaluate the performance levels of land intensive use and urbanization in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2017, and the performance levels of both and the variation trends of their subsystems were studied. Then, by using the coupling degree and coordination degree model and based on the value change of coupling effect coefficient, the relationship between land intensive use and coordinated development of urbanization in Anhui Province was discussed under different circumstances and the change trend. Finally, the obstacle degree model was used to diagnose the obstacle factors that affected the coordinated development of land intensive use and urbanization in Anhui Province. It was found that from 2000 to 2017, both land intensive use and urbanization in Anhui Province were increased year by year, and the trend was steady and steady. The performance level of land intensive use in Anhui Province was increased from 0.0536 in 2000 to 0.9587 in 2017, with an average annual growth rate of 18.49%, and it experienced the development process of poor performance (2000—2006), intermediate performance (2007—2010), good performance (2011—2014) and high performance (2015—2017); the urbanization level of Anhui Province was increased from 0.2715 to 0.8180, with an average annual growth rate of 6.70%, and experienced a development process from poor performance (2000-2011) to intermediate performance (2012—2017). From the perspective of each subsystem of land intensive use, the subsystem of economic performance made the largest contribution to land intensive use, while the subsystem of ecological performance made the smallest contribution to land intensive use, with weights of 0.3526 and 0.1308 respectively, and from the perspective of each subsystem of urbanization, the economic urbanization subsystem had the greatest impact on the urbanization level, while the ecological urbanization subsystem had the least impact on the urbanization level, with weights of 0.4160 and 0.1377 respectively. In the case of different values of coupling effect coefficient, the change trend of the relationship between land intensive use and coordinated development of urbanization in Anhui Province was slightly different from that in 2005 and 2012, but the trend and type of coordinated development in the other 16 years were completely the same, and the influence of coupling effect coefficient on the relationship between the two was very limited. From 2000 to 2017, the coordinated development degree of land intensive use and urbanization in Anhui Province was increased year by year, which experienced the unbalanced recession stage (2000—2001), low coordination stage (2002—2005), moderate coordination stage (2006—2012) and high coordination stage (2013—2017). From the perspective of the obstacle degree of each subsystem, the economic subsystem of land intensive use had the greatest impact on the coordinated development of land intensive use and urbanization in Anhui Province, with an average annual obstacle degree of 16.48%, the subsystem of ecological urbanization had the least impact on the coordinated development of the two, with an average annual barrier of 6.60%. From the perspective of the obstacle degree of each indicator, the obstacle factors affecting the coordinated development of the two mainly include peoples living standard, per capita fiscal income and per capita GDP in 2011 and before, and in 2012 and after, the obstacles affecting the coordinated development of the two mainly include the gap of per capita disposable income between urban and rural areas and the density of urban population. From the perspective of the first five obstacle factors in each year, according to the impact of various indicators on the coordinated development of land intensive use and urbanization, it can be divided into two stages: the first stage (2000—2013) focused on the impact of land intensive use, and the second stage (2014—2017) focused on the impact of urbanization. The research results provided new ideas and methods for studying and judging the coordinated development level and obstacle factors of land intensive use and urbanization, so as to promote the coordinated development of land intensive use and urbanization in Anhui Province and other similar provinces. 

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雷勋平,QIU Robin,刘晨.土地集约利用与城镇化协调发展评价及障碍因子诊断[J].农业机械学报,2020,51(6):138-151. LEI Xunping, QIU Robin, LIU Chen. Evaluation of Coordinated Development between Land Intensive Use and Urbanization and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(6):138-151.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-03-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-06-10
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