基于GLUE和PEST的CERES-Maize模型调参与验证研究
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家高技术研究发展计划(863 计划)资助项目(2013AA102904)、国家自然科学基金资助项目(51209176)和高等学校学科创新引智计划(111计划)资助项目(B12007)


Parameter Estimation and Verification of CERES-Maize Model with GLUE and PEST Methods
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    作物模型已逐渐成为干旱和半干旱地区优化农田水肥管理和实施节水灌溉的有力决策支持工具。为了探讨CERES-Maize模型模拟不同生育期受旱情况下夏玉米的生长发育、产量形成和土壤水分状况的模拟精度,进行了2013和2014年连续两季夏玉米田间分段受旱试验。试验将夏玉米整个生育期划分为苗期、拔节、抽雄和灌浆4个主要生长阶段,采用单个生育期受旱其他生育期灌水的方式,形成4个不同的受旱时段水平(D1~D4),又根据夏玉米多年生育期降雨量,设置了70和110mm两个灌水水平(I1和I2),共形成8个处理,每个处理3次重复,在遮雨棚内按照裂区试验布设,此外设置1个各生育期均灌水110mm的对照处理(CK)。利用两年试验数据,采用DSSAT-GLUE和PEST两种不同的模型参数估计工具,对CERES-Maize模型的遗传参数进行估计,并对该模型的模拟精度和可靠性进行验证,此外还使用交叉验证法对CERES-Maize模型的整体模拟精度进行评估。结果表明,GLUE和PEST两种调参工具所得的模型参数均有较好的稳定性和收敛性,但PEST调参工具耗时较少,效率较高;CERES-Maize模型能较好地模拟充分灌水条件下夏玉米的生长发育、产量和土壤水分变化,绝对相对误差(ARE)和相对均方根误差(RRMSE)均在6%~8%之间;但是现有CERES-Maize模型无法模拟由于不同生育期受旱造成的夏玉米物候期的差异。此外,交叉验证结果发现夏玉米生长前期(特别是拔节期)受旱处理的数据参与模型校正时,模型的总体平均模拟误差较大,精度较低。CERES-Maize模型模拟前期受旱对玉米籽粒产量的影响时结果不够准确,这可能是由于该模型低估了早期水分胁迫条件下的LAI值,进而使得ET模拟不准确所造成的。总之,CERES-Maize模型对生育期前期(特别是拔节期)受旱条件下夏玉米生长发育、产量形成和土壤水分变化的模拟还存在一定的不足,若将CERES-Maize模型应用于我国干旱和半干旱地区水分胁迫条件下玉米的生产管理和科学研究,应对模型进行相应的修正。

    Abstract:

    Crop model has been becoming a powerful tool for agricultural water and nitrogen management and implementation of watersaving irrigation. This study was to explore the accuracy of CERES-Maize model for its simulations of summer maize growth, development, yield, and soil moisture under different scenarios of water stress. Field experiments were conducted under a rainout shelter for summer maize growing under water stresses at different growth stages in two consecutive growth seasons (2013 and 2014). The whole growth season of maize was divided into four stages (seeding, jointing, tasseling, and grain filling). Water stress occurred at every single stage, while irrigations were applied at the other three stages. Thus, there were four different levels of water stress period (D1~D4). Two irrigation levels of 70mm (I1) and 110 mm (I2) were applied according to the average rainfall during growth season of summer maize in 56 years. Consequently, there were a total of 8 treatments, with 3 replicates for each. The plots followed a split-plot experiment design. An extra control treatment with irrigation at all four stages was arranged nearby. The experimental data were used to calibrate and validate the CERES-Maize model with two parameter estimation tools of GLUE (Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) and PEST (Parameter ESTimation). Additionally, an overall evaluation was made with cross validation method for the prediction accuracy of the CERES-Maize model. Results showed that both GLUE and PEST had good stability and convergence for the estimation of genetic parameters of CERESMaize model. The parameters values separately estimated with GLUE and PEST were very close. However, PEST had higher efficiency since it consumed much less time than the GLUE. CERES-Maize model can precisely simulate the growth, development, yield, and soil moisture of summer maize under full irrigation condition, since the absolute relative error (ARE) and relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) values of model calibration and verification were only between 6% and 8%. Anthesis and maturity dates of summer maize were different when water stresses occurred at different growth stages, but CERES-Maize model failed to simulate such kind of phenology differences caused by water stresses. In cross-validation, model simulation errors became bigger when water stresses occurred at early stages, especially at jointing stage. CERES-Maize model failed to correctly simulate the influences of water stresses at early growth stages on the final grain yield of summer maize, which was probably caused by the underestimation of LAI under such conditions. Lower estimated LAI values then made the simulations of ET incorrect. In general, CERES-Maize model was proved to be limited to simulate the growth, yield, and soil moisture of summer maize when under serious water stresses at early growth stages. It is necessary to modify accordingly the CERES-Maize model if it will be used in the simulation of agro-ecological systems of summer maize in arid and semi-arid areas of China.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

宋利兵,陈 上,姚 宁,冯 浩,张体彬,何建强.基于GLUE和PEST的CERES-Maize模型调参与验证研究[J].农业机械学报,2015,46(11):95-111. Song Libing, Chen Shang, Yao Ning, Feng Hao, Zhang Tibin, He Jianqiang. Parameter Estimation and Verification of CERES-Maize Model with GLUE and PEST Methods[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(11):95-111.

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2015-08-10
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2015-11-10
  • 出版日期: 2015-11-10