基于短期天气预报的水稻灌溉风险决策研究
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中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B240201037)、江苏省重点研发计划项目(BE2022390)和国家自然科学基金项目(51909064)


Risk Decision-making for Rice Irrigation Based on Short-term Weather Forecast
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    摘要:

    充分利用降雨是节约灌溉用水的有效途径。为保证水稻产量并提高水稻种植降雨利用率,本研究以水稻耐旱耐淹特性为基础,提出了基于短期天气预报的节水灌溉策略并开展了试验研究。设置节水灌溉策略Ⅰ:若灌溉后未来5 d在预报降雨情况下均不产生排水则执行灌溉,否则不灌溉,连续3 d决策不灌溉时第4天强制灌溉;节水灌溉策略Ⅱ决策过程与策略Ⅰ相同但灌溉量减半。采用2023—2024年2年田间试验数据,对节水灌溉策略和常规灌溉策略进行了定量对比分析,结果表明:提出的节水灌溉策略Ⅰ和节水灌溉策略Ⅱ在不减产情况下,相比常规策略2年平均可节约灌溉水11.385%和22.935%,降雨利用率提高4.71、6.045个百分点;在灌水频次上,节水灌溉策略Ⅰ2年均减少灌水2次;节水灌溉策略Ⅱ在2023年与常规策略相同,但在2024年增加9次灌水,少量多次的灌水方式显著提高了降雨利用率。因此,提出的基于短期天气预报的节水灌溉策略,通过在水稻耐旱期内适当推迟灌溉以充分利用短期降雨,具有显著的降低灌溉决策减产风险、提高降雨利用率作用,可保证水稻产量和节水减排效益,对我国南方水稻种植的智慧灌溉决策具有重要意义。

    Abstract:

    Efficient use of rainfall is an effective strategy for saving irrigation water. To ensure rice yield and enhance rainfall utilization efficiency in rice cultivation, the water-saving irrigation strategies were proposed based on short-term weather forecast, considering the drought and flood tolerance characteristics of rice. Field experiments were then conduced. In strategy Ⅰ, irrigation was applied only if no drainage was forecasted within five days after irrigation. Otherwise, it was withheld. If there were three consecutive days of decision not to irrigate, then mandatory irrigation would occur on the fourth day. Strategy Ⅱ followed the same rules but applied only half the irrigation amount. Using field trial data from 2023 to 2024, a quantitative comparative analysis was conducted between water-saving irrigation strategies and conventional irrigation strategies. Results showed that strategy Ⅰ and strategy Ⅱ reduced irrigation water use by 11.385% and 22.935% on average compared with the conventional strategy over two years, without reducing yield. Rainfall utilization was increased by 4.71 percentage points and 6.045 percentage points, respectively. In terms of irrigation frequency, strategy Ⅰ reduced two irrigation events in both years, while strategy Ⅱ kept the same events as the conventional strategy in 2023, but required nine additional irrigation events in 2024. Strategy Ⅱ significantly improved rainfall utilization by applying small dose irrigations with more events. In conclusion, the proposed weather forecast-based strategies, which involved delaying irrigation during drought periods to maximize short-term rainfall, significantly reduced the risk of yield loss and improved rainfall utilization. These strategies ensured rice yield, saved water, and reduced emissions, offering significant benefits for smart irrigation decision-making in southern China.

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缴锡云,黄雨荷,顾哲,芦梦瑶,孙文渊,师绍正,张帆.基于短期天气预报的水稻灌溉风险决策研究[J].农业机械学报,2026,57(6):337-346. JIAO Xiyun, HUANG Yuhe, GU Zhe, LU Mengyao, SUN Wenyuan, SHI Shaozheng, ZHANG Fan. Risk Decision-making for Rice Irrigation Based on Short-term Weather Forecast[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2026,57(6):337-346.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-15
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