基于CEEMDAN-混合算法-LSTM的区域地下水埋深预测模型
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国家自然科学基金项目(52309012、52179008、51579044、41071053)、国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFD1501004、2024YFD1511700)和黑龙江省自然科学基金联合引导项目(LH2023E003)


Regional Groundwater Depth Prediction Model Based on CEEMDAN-Hybrid Algorithm-LSTM
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    摘要:

    为提高区域地下水埋深预测精度,提出一种CEEMDAN-混合算法-LSTM预测模型。基于完全自适应噪声集成经验模态分解法(CEEMDAN),将建三江分公司下辖15个农场的地下水埋深数据分解为5个模态分量,从而有效降低输入数据的复杂性。同时,将红狐优化算法(RFO)和鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)结合的混合算法,用于优化长短记忆神经网络(LSTM)模型关键参数,包括时间步长、隐藏单元数、批量大小和学习率,以进一步提高模型预测精度。将月降水量和水田井灌水量作为LSTM模型输入因子,分别对5个模态分量进行预测,最终通过累加各分量预测值得到地下水埋深预测值。结果表明:与反向传播神经网络(BP)模型和循环神经网络(RNN)模型相比,CEEMDAN-混合算法-LSTM模型均方根误差(RMSE)降低43%以上,决定系数R2和纳什效率系数(NSE) 均提升超18%;预测结果表明,2023—2027年建三江分公司整体地下水埋深变化幅度达6.22%,其中南部农场地下水埋深普遍大于北部农场。

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    Aiming to improve the accuracy of regional groundwater depth prediction, a CEEMDAN-hybrid algorithm-LSTM prediction model was proposed. Based on the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) method, the groundwater depth data from 15 farms under the jurisdiction of Jiansanjiang Branch office were decomposed into five modal components, effectively reducing the complexity of the input data. Meanwhile, a hybrid optimization algorithm combining the red fox optimization (RFO) algorithm and the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) was employed to optimize key parameters of the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model, including time step, number of hidden units, batch size, and learning rate, thereby further enhancing the model's prediction accuracy. Monthly precipitation and paddy field irrigation well volume were used as input factors for the LSTM model to separately predict the five modal components, and the final groundwater depth prediction was obtained by summing the predicted values of each component. The results showed that compared with the back propagation (BP) neural network model and the recurrent neural network (RNN) model, the CEEMDAN-hybrid algorithm-LSTM model reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) by more than 43%, and increased the coefficient of determination R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) by more than 18%. Prediction results indicated that from 2023 to 2027, the overall groundwater depth in the Jiansanjiang Branch office area would vary by up to 6.22%, with southern farms generally having greater groundwater depths than northern farms.

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刘东,覃胡涛,张祥敏,张亮亮,齐晓晨.基于CEEMDAN-混合算法-LSTM的区域地下水埋深预测模型[J].农业机械学报,2026,57(6):320-328. LIU Dong, QIN Hutao, ZHANG Xiangmin, ZHANG Liangliang, QI Xiaochen. Regional Groundwater Depth Prediction Model Based on CEEMDAN-Hybrid Algorithm-LSTM[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2026,57(6):320-328.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-15
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