极端枯水下供需水失衡驱动要素识别与不确定性分析
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国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202300)和河南省科技发展计划项目(242102320242)


Analysis of Uncertainties and Identification of Impact Factors of Unbalances of Water Supplies and Water Demands under Extreme Dry Years
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    摘要:

    在极端枯水下,识别黄河流域供需水失衡破坏因素,可为流域水资源科学管理提供理论基础,因此本文采用供需水失衡范围和失衡深度表征供需水失衡程度,利用主成分分析法识别水文气象、社会经济、水库调度和生态环境对供需水失衡的驱动作用。采用随机分布函数、K-S和A-D方法,识别、拟合并检验地表引水量和水库下泄水量等驱动因子的随机特性和分布函数。采用三层因子分析方法探究单参数和交互参数对供需水失衡的影响。结果表明:极端枯水年(1998—2002年)黄河流域供需水失衡横跨中等程度、相对高程度和高程度;地表引水量、水库下泄水量对供需水失衡产生主要影响,方差解释率达55.005%;小浪底水库下泄水量对供需水失衡程度影响最大,地表引水量和万家寨水库下泄水量对供需水失衡程度影响次之。该结果可识别水文气象、社会经济、水库调度和生态环境交互作用下流域供需水失衡的关键要素,明析要素不确定性对供需水失衡的影响,为黄河流域水资源管理提供理论支撑。

    Abstract:

    Aiming to identify impact factors of unbalances of water supplies and water demand (referred to WSD) of Yellow River Basin under extreme dry years to support water resources management, the WSD was measured by ranges and depth of WSD. Besides, responses of WSD on metro-hydrological elements, economic and society, reservoir regulation, ecology and environments were explored by the principal component analysis method (PCA). Moreover, uncertainties of surface water supplies and discharges of reservoirs were measured by stochastic functions that were verified by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S) and augmented dickey fuller (A-D) approaches. The influences of single and interactive parameters on WSD were studied by three-level factors method. The results showed that WSD of Yellow River Basin ranged from medium, relatively high and high degree. Surface water supplies and discharges of reservoirs had the most impacts on WSD and explanation rate reached about 55.055%. Xiaolangdi reservoir had the biggest impact on WSD, followed by surface water supplies and Wanjiazhai reservoir. These results could identify key impact factors of WSD under interactions among hydrometeorology, socioeconomics, reservoir operation and ecol ogical environment. Besides, it could explore impacts of uncertainties on WSD, supporting water resources management of Huanghe River.

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王友芝,刘姝芳,韩金旭,罗赟,李强坤.极端枯水下供需水失衡驱动要素识别与不确定性分析[J].农业机械学报,2026,57(4):391-398. WANG Youzhi, LIU Shufang, HAN Jinxu, LUO Yun, LI Qiangkun. Analysis of Uncertainties and Identification of Impact Factors of Unbalances of Water Supplies and Water Demands under Extreme Dry Years[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2026,57(4):391-398.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-15
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