There are many unexpected events when a rover is moving on a planet surface, and subsidence is one of the most fatal events which could result in the invalidation of the rover. It is very important to research subsidence prediction and intervention measures when encountering unpredictable excessive subsidence. Function relationship between wheel and soil is linearized to establish simple drawbar pull equation for subsidence estimation. “Yutu” lunar rover is taken as an example for revising equation by means of wheel soil-bin test and subsidence estimation function used to estimate subsidence online. Error between the calculation of the drawbar pull model and the measurement in soil bin test is less than 9%. The proposed model can be used to warn before the rover sinking, and provide the sinkage data for the earth-based simulation of breaking away from sink after the rover sinking. This method can also be used for rapid subsidence estimation when wheeled machinery performs various operations on the sand, beaches and other soft ground.