四川省不同SPEI指数计算方法适用性评价
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联合国教科文组织项目(4500469020)


Application Evaluation of Different SPEI Index Calculation Methods in Sichuan Province
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    摘要:

    为探究不同参考作物腾发量(ET0)算法及相应标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)在四川省的适用性,针对四川省3个区域(川西高原、川西南山地和川中盆地),利用34个气象站点1967—2016年的气象资料,以Penman-Monteith(PM)法计算的ET0为标准,对FAO-24Radiation(FAO-Ra)、Priestley-Taylor(PT)、Makkink(MK)、Hargreaves-Samani(HS)、Blaney-Criddle(BC)、World Meteorological Organization(WMO)、Rohwer(Ro)7种方法的ET0计算结果进行比较,并选取其中综合表现较好的3种方法进行相应的SPEI计算。通过时间序列分析、误差分析、K-S检验及小波分析等方法,探讨各区域不同ET0算法下的SPEI适用性。结果表明:7种方法在不同区域计算精度差异显著,在川西高原及川西南山地,PT法均方根误差(RMSE)均在99.11mm以下,大部分气象站点的相对误差(RE)介于-3.8%~14.2%之间,适用性最好;MK、Ro法在3个区域的表现均较为稳定。基于PM、MK、Ro、PT 4种方法计算得到的SPEI在同一区域变化趋势一致,在有实际旱情的年份,其最小值均低于0,能够识别历史干旱事件。SPEI_PT和SPEI_PM具有最相似的周期振荡变化,SPEI_Ro和SPEI_PM的周期差距最大。1个月时间尺度的SPEI相关性比3、12个月时间尺度好,在1个月时间尺度下,SPEI_MK与SPEI_PM有更好的相关性,相关系数达到0.99,RMSE仅为0.15。在数据缺失条件下,SPEI_MK可以作为SPEI_PM的替代,该方法可为四川省的干旱监测和防控提供理论依据。

    Abstract:

    Drought episodes have become the main natural hazards all over the world, resulting in a serious limitation to agricultural production. Based on the daily meteorological data of 34 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1967 to 2016, the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) was calculated by comparing the Penman-Monteith method (PM) and seven simplified ET0 methods. The simplified ET0 methods included Hargreaves-Samani (HS) method, Blaney-Criddle (BC) method, Priestley-Taylor (PT) method, Makkink (MK) method, FAO-24Radiation (FAO-Ra) method, Rohwer (Ro) method and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) method. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on PM and the three ET0 methods with better performances. To obtain the best calculation methods and assess its adaptability, Sichuan Province was divided into three regions, such as western plateau, southwestern mountain, and central Sichuan basin. The applicability of corresponding SPEI was evaluated with different ET0 methods in each region by time series analysis, error analysis, K-S test and wavelet analysis. The results showed that there were significant differences in the calculation accuracy of seven methods in different regions. The PT method had the best applicability in western plateau and southwestern mountain although the root mean square error (RMSE) of PT method was below 99.11mm and the relative error (RE) of most sites was -3.8%~14.2%. The MK and Ro methods had the stable performances in three regions since the RMSE of both were below 160mm. The SPEI calculated on the basis of PM, MK, Ro and PT ET0 methods had the same trend in the same region. In the year with actual drought event, the minimum values of SPEI were less than 0 so it can identify historical drought events. SPEI_PT and SPEI_PM had the most similar periodic oscillation changes, and the periodic gap between SPEI_Ro and SPEI_PM was the largest. The SPEI correlation at 1 month timescale was better than that at 3 month and 12 month timescales. There was the best correlation between SPEI_MK and SPEI_PM at 1 month timescale, with the correlation coefficient (r) of 0.99 and RMSE of 0.15. Therefore, SPEI_MK can be used as an alternative to SPEI_PM under the condition of missing data. This research can provide a theoretical evidence for drought monitoring and mitigation in Sichuan Province, and it can also give a reference for research in other areas.

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康银红,王嘉驰,宋鑫,武剑飞,贺帅.四川省不同SPEI指数计算方法适用性评价[J].农业机械学报,2023,54(6):340-349. KANG Yinhong, WANG Jiachi, SONG Xin, WU Jianfei, HE Shuai. Application Evaluation of Different SPEI Index Calculation Methods in Sichuan Province[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2023,54(6):340-349.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-01-28
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