三江平原ET0时空特征及其未来情景下预测研究
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国家自然科学基金项目(51979038、51825901)、国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0406004)、黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(E2015024)和黑龙江省水文图集修编项目(SWJFS-2018-009)


Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Prediction under Future Scenarios of ET0 in Sanjiang Plain
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    摘要:

    参考作物蒸发量(Reference crop evapotranspiration,ET0)的预测对作物需水量计算与田间水分管理具有重大意义,可为农业节水和水资源高效利用提供重要的科学依据。基于三江平原6个气象站1961—2010年逐日气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith(P-M)公式计算ET0,对历史期(1961—2010年)ET0及相关气象要素的时空特征进行分析;依据美国国家环境预报中心再分析数据以及大气环流模型(GCM)中加拿大CanESM2模式的预报因子日序列的输出数据,采用统计降尺度模型(SDSM)对未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种排放情景下的ET0进行预测。结果表明:历史期ET0呈上升趋势,多年年平均气温与ET0趋势相同,而年平均风速、相对湿度和净辐射整体呈下降趋势,空间分布上多年年平均ET0总体表现为中部高于周边、西部高于东部的趋势;模拟精度检验方面,基于CanESM2模式下historical情景模拟的ET0模拟值与P-M公式的ET0计算值进行检验,两者对应率定期+验证期(1961—2005年)的纳什效率系数(NSE)为0.46~0.61,决定系数R2为0.53~0.61,说明SDSM模拟效果较好。未来2011—2100年年内ET0变化中,两种情景下2011—2040年、2041—2070年、2071—2100年3个未来时段月平均日值的变化趋势与历史期基本一致,均似开口向下的抛物线状,且表现为不同程度的上升趋势;未来2011—2100年年际ET0变化中,未来ET0较历史期为上升趋势,RCP4.5情景下3个未来时段较历史期分别增加11.11%、18.70%、20.24%,其中2011—2040年时段多年ET0为较明显上升趋势,2041—2070年、2071—2100年时段总体为较缓下降趋势;RCP8.5情景下3个时段较历史期分别增加13.01%、24.05%、34.46%,3个时段内多年ET0均为上升趋势。研究区未来ET0的升高可能导致水资源短缺问题进一步加剧,研究结果可为研究区水资源优化管理和灌溉制度制定提供科学参考。

    Abstract:

    The prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is great significant for crop water requirement calculation and field water management, which can provide an important scientific basis for agricultural water conservation and efficient use of water resources. Based on the day-by-day meteorological data of six meteorological stations in the Sanjiang Plain from 1961 to 2010, the Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate ET0 and analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of ET0 and related meteorological elements from 1961 to 2010; based on the NCEP reanalysis data and the output data of the daily series of the CanESM2 forecast factor of the atmospheric circulation model, the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to predict ET0 under two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results showed that the ET0 from 1961 to 2010 showed an increasing trend, the multi-year annual mean temperature and ET0 trend were the same, while the annual mean wind speed, relative humidity and net radiation showed an overall decreasing trend, and the spatial distribution of multi-year annual mean ET0 showed a general trend that the central part was higher than the periphery, and the western part was higher than the eastern part; in terms of simulation accuracy test, the ET0 simulation values of “historical” simulation under CanESM2 model and the calculated values of the P-M formula corresponded to the Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE) range of 0.46~0.61 and the coefficient of determination R2 range of 0.53~0.61 for the regular + validation period (1961—2005), which implied that the SDSM simulation was effective. The trends of the monthly average daily values of ET0 in the three future time periods of 2011—2040, 2041—2070, and 2071—2100 under the two scenarios in the future 2011—2100 intra-annual ET0 changes were relatively consistent, all resembling a parabola with a downward opening, with May-July significantly higher than the level of the historical period (1961—2010), January-April and August slightly higher than the historical period, and September-December gradually converged with the historical period. The future change of ET0 between 2011—2100 would on an upward trend compared with the historical period, and the three time periods of 2011—2040, 2041—2070, and 2071—2100 under RCP4.5 scenario would be increased by 11.11%, 18.70%, and 20.24%, respectively, compared with the historical period, with the multi-year ET0 in the time period of 2011—2040 on a more obvious upward trend. The overall downward trend would slower in the 2041—2070 and 2071—2100 time periods; the three time periods under the RCP8.5 scenario would be increased by 13.01%, 24.05%, and 34.46%, respectively, compared with the historical period, and the multi-year ET0 would on the rise in all three time periods. The future increase of ET0 in the study area may lead to aggravation of water shortage problem, and the results of the study may provide scientific reference for optimal water resources management and irrigation system formulation in the study area.

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邢贞相,王红利,王欣蕾,喻熠,段维义,付强.三江平原ET0时空特征及其未来情景下预测研究[J].农业机械学报,2023,54(6):328-339. XING Zhenxiang, WANG Hongli, WANG Xinlei, YU Yi, DUAN Weiyi, FU Qiang. Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Prediction under Future Scenarios of ET0 in Sanjiang Plain[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2023,54(6):328-339.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-02-10
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