A trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and distributed crop simulation model was developed based on distributed agricultural production warning model. The model selected spatially-distributed crop yield and water productivity as warning indictors to calculate system’s warning levels. Besides, it introduced trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to express uncertainties of crop yield target and water productivity target. Moreover, the crop yield and water productivity between 1976 to 2021 and between future year 2026 to 2045 under RCP4.5 scenario under normal irrigation, 0.8 times and 0.6 times as normal irrigation were simulated based on distributed AquaCrop model. Additionally, the static and dynamic coordinated degrees between crop yield and water productivity for future 20 years were calculated. The results showed that warning level of one crop with different soil types and irrigation levels was different. And warning levels presented irregular changes with decrease of irrigation level while coordinated level lessened with decrease of irrigation level. The model could identify warning levels of spatially-distributed crop yield and water productivity under different irrigation levels and realize the precise warning forecast, which were beneficial to reach reductions of agricultural production risks quickly.