南昌市LUCC多情景模拟和生境质量时空演变与预测
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(51708098、52168010)


Multi-scenario Simulation of LUCC and Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Habitat Quality in Nanchang City
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    人类活动和气候影响土地利用变化,而土地利用变化是影响生境质量变化最基本因素之一,探究不同气候情景下生境质量对区域土地资源可持续利用和生态保护具有重要意义。本文以南昌市为例,基于耦合SD(System dynamics)-PLUS(Patch-generating land use simulation)模型模拟预测共享社会经济发展路径(Shared socioeconomic pathways, SSPs)与典型浓度路径(Representative concentration pathways, RCPs)组合情景下南昌市2035年土地利用格局,InVEST (Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs)模型评估2000—2020年以及3种不同气候情景下南昌市2035年生境质量并进行时空变化分析,结果表明:3种情景下,2035年南昌市耕地、林地、草地面积下降,建设用地扩张迅速,水域和未利用地变化幅度较小。2000—2020年生境质量持续下降且空间分布差异较大,优等生境质量分布于山地丘陵以及湖泊水域,中、差等则分布于耕作区和城镇地区。3种气候情景下,2035年南昌市生境质量呈减速下降趋势,主要表现出中等向差等生境转换,退化程度由大到小依次为SSP585、SSP245、SSP119。研究结果可为南昌市高质量发展和生物多样性保护提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Human activities and climate affect land use change, and land use change is one of the most fundamental factors influencing habitat quality change. It is important to investigate habitat quality under different climate scenarios for sustainable use of regional land resources and ecological conservation. Taking Nanchang City as an example, and the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were predicted based on coupled system dynamics (SD)-patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model simulations. The integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model evaluated the land use pattern of Nanchang City in 2035 under combination of SSPs and RCPs. The results showed that under the three scenarios, the area of arable land, forest land and grassland in Nanchang City was decreased in 2035, the land for construction was expanded rapidly, and the change in water and unused land was small. Under the three climate scenarios, the habitat quality of Nanchang City in 2035 showed a decelerating trend of decline, mainly showing a shift from medium to low habitats, and the degradation degree from large to small was SSP585, SSP245, and SSP119. The research results can provide scientific reference for high-quality development and biodiversity conservation in Nanchang City, and it can also provide scientific reference for high-quality development and biodiversity conservation in Nanchang City.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

陈竹安,刘子强,张立亭,危小建,洪志强.南昌市LUCC多情景模拟和生境质量时空演变与预测[J].农业机械学报,2023,54(5):170-180. CHEN Zhu’an, LIU Ziqiang, ZHANG Liting, WEI Xiaojian, HONG Zhiqiang. Multi-scenario Simulation of LUCC and Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Habitat Quality in Nanchang City[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2023,54(5):170-180.

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-08-16
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-05-10
  • 出版日期: