耕地生产力隐性退化遥感监测与影响因素分析
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自然资源部城市国土资源监测与仿真重点实验室开放基金项目(KF-2020-05-026)和国家自然科学基金项目(41801202)


Remote Sensing Monitoring of Recessive Degradation for Cultivated Land Productivity and Its Influencing Factors
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    摘要:

    以江苏省永久耕地为例,基于2001—2019年中分辨率成像光谱仪(Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer,MODIS)遥感影像,开展耕地生产力隐性退化遥感监测和影响因素分析。BFAST(Breaks for additive seasonal and trend)算法用于建模历史时期耕地生产力变化的预期行为,并以此为基准判断监测时期耕地生产力是否存在隐性退化风险。基于地理探测器,从3个准则层的8项指标变量对耕地生产力隐性退化进行了主导影响因素探测和因子交互分析。研究结果表明:江苏省存在生产力隐性退化的耕地比例为21.9%,具有显著的空间差异。西北地区的徐州市、宿迁市的耕地生产力隐性退化比例最高,分别为47.2%和43.4%,且表现出聚集性。东南地区的苏州市、无锡市和南通市的耕地生产力隐性退化比例较低,均不足10%。因子探测分析表明外流人口数量、种植业从业人员数量和农业机械化总动力3项指标对江苏省耕地生产力隐性退化的解释力最强。多因子交互耦合后,人口因素与生产条件解释力增强最为显著。耕地生产力隐性退化的地域分异类型划分为生产条件约束型、产出效益约束型和人口因素约束型。农业机械化总动力、农业产值和外流人口数量分别为3种约束类型的首要因素。从地域空间来看,人口因素约束型地区在江苏省占比最大,主要集中于苏北地区。对于不同约束类型区域分别提出加强高标准农田建设、实施惠农政策、减缓劳动力析出等相应的政策建议。

    Abstract:

    While sticking to the arable-land red line, the recessive degradation of arable land productivity caused by farmers decisions on the use of cultivated land should not be ignored, such as the reduction of the intensity and efficiency of cultivated land use. Taking permanent cultivated land in Jiangsu Province as an example, remote sensing monitoring and influencing factor analysis of recessive degradation were carried out for cultivated land productivity, based on the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS)remote sensing images from 2001 to 2019. The breaks for additive seasonal and trend algorithm(BFAST)was introduced to model the expected behavior of cultivated land productivity trend in the historical period, in order to identify the recessive degradation of cultivated land productivity in the monitoring period. Based on the Geodetor tool, the dominant influencing factors and factor interaction analysis of the recessive degradation of cultivated land productivity were carried out from three criteria levels and eight index variables. The results indicated that the proportion of recessive degradation for cultivated land productivity in Jiangsu Province was 21.9%, with a significant spatial difference. The highest proportion of recessive degradation of cultivated land productivity appeared in the northwest area, located in Xuzhou and Suqian, which was 47.2% and 43.4%, respectively; besides, their spatial distribution showed aggregation. The recessive degradation rate of cultivated land productivity in Suzhou, Wuxi and Nantong in the southeast region was low, and it was less than 10%. Factor detection analysis showed that the three indicators of population loss, plantation employees and total power of agricultural mechanization had the strongest explanation for recessive degradation of cultivated land production in Jiangsu Province. Through the interaction detector, the explanatory power of population factors and production conditions was improved most significantly. The regional differentiation of recessive degradation for cultivated land production was divided into three types, including production condition constraint, economic benefit constraint and population constraint. The total power of agricultural mechanization, agricultural output value and population loss were the primary factors of the three constraint types respectively. From the perspective of regional space, the population constraint areas accounted for the largest proportion in Jiangsu Province, mainly concentrated in the north. According to different constraints types of recessive degradation for cultivated land production, the corresponding policy suggestions were put forward, such as strengthening the construction of well-facilitated farmland, implementing benefiting-agriculture policies and slowing down the diversion of labor.

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李卓,查思含,霍伟,王林林,郭文华,孙丹峰.耕地生产力隐性退化遥感监测与影响因素分析[J].农业机械学报,2022,53(4):363-371. LI Zhuo, ZHA Sihan, HUO We, WANG Linlin, GUO Wenhua, SUN Danfeng. Remote Sensing Monitoring of Recessive Degradation for Cultivated Land Productivity and Its Influencing Factors[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2022,53(4):363-371.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-11-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-01-12
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