基于K-medoids和LSTM的冷链运输环境预测方法
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国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFD0701002)


Cold Chain Transportation Environment Prediction Method Based on K-medoids and LSTM
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    摘要:

    针对目前冷链储运环境状态仅通过当前环境监测数据进行判断,未能对环境变化趋势做出预判,无法很好地满足冷链储运环境性能评估的需求,提出了一种基于K中心点算法(K-medoids)和长短时记忆网络(LSTM)相结合的冷藏车厢温湿度多步预测方法。将冷藏车厢内历史温湿度数据、采集节点分布特征按照时间序列作为输入,采用K-medoids对其进行数据融合,然后将融合后的数据按照时间序列输入LSTM网络进行温湿度预测。将该预测方法应用于舟山兴业集团的冷藏车内进行温湿度预测验证。试验结果表明:该预测方法对于冷藏车厢内温度预测的均方根误差、平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分比误差分别为0.3438℃、0.2730℃、1.51%;对于冷藏车厢内相对湿度均方根误差、平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分比误差分别为2.5619%、1.9956%、3.53%,相比于BP神经网络等其他浅层模型,该模型具有较好的预测精度和泛化能力,能够满足冷链储运环境预测的实际需求,可为冷链运输环境精细化管理和调控提供策略支持。

    Abstract:

    Among the many environmental factors in the cold chain storage and transportation environment, the temperature and humidity in the cabin are the key factors, and they have characteristics such as nonlinearity and strong coupling. At the same time, the acquired data has noise interference, In order to solve the traditional single-point forecast cannot meet the needs of cold chain storage and transportation environmental performance evaluation, a multi-step prediction method for refrigerated compartment temperature and humidity based on the combination of K-medoids and long short-term memory network (LSTM) was proposed. The historical temperature and humidity data in the refrigerated compartment and the distribution characteristics of the collection nodes were taken as input according to the time series, and K-medoids were used for data fusion, and then the fused data was input into the LSTM network according to the time series for temperature and humidity prediction. The prediction method was applied to the prediction of temperature and humidity in the refrigerated vehicle of Zhoushan Xingye Group. The test results showed that the RMSE of the prediction method for the temperature in the refrigerated vehicle was 0.3438℃, the MAE was 0.2730℃, and the MAPE was 1.51%; the RMSE of the humidity in the refrigerated compartment was 2.5619%, the MAE was 1.9956%, and the MAPE was 3.53%; compared with K-medoids-BP, K-medoids-RBF, K-medoids-Elman neural network model, all showed that the proposed model had higher prediction accuracy, and can provide strategic support for the fine management and regulation of the cold chain transportation environment.

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苑严伟,孙国庆,刘阳春,王猛,赵博,汪凤珠.基于K-medoids和LSTM的冷链运输环境预测方法[J].农业机械学报,2022,53(4):322-329. YUAN Yanwei, SUN Guoqing, LIU Yangchun, WANG Meng, ZHAO Bo, WANG Fengzhu. Cold Chain Transportation Environment Prediction Method Based on K-medoids and LSTM[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2022,53(4):322-329.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-05-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-06-30
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