不同时间尺度下冻融灌区地下水埋深CAR模型优选
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国家自然科学基金项目(51539005、51969024、51669020)、内蒙古水利厅重大项目(NSK2017-M1)和内蒙古科技厅重大专项(zdzx2018059)


CAR Model Optimization of Groundwater Depth in Freezing-Thawing Irrigation Area under Different Time Scales
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    摘要:

    为提高冻融灌区地下水埋深的预测精度,探索不同时间尺度数据源对地下水埋深预测的影响,以河套灌区永济灌域为研究区域,针对地下水埋深在时间序列上表现的滞后性和非线性,建立了不同时间尺度(月、季、年)CAR模型,并进行了不同输入变量CAR模型的差异性分析。结果表明:季尺度数据源CAR模型拟合效果明显优于月尺度数据源CAR模型和年尺度数据源CAR模型,拟合效果较好的季尺度数据源CAR模型的决定系数(R2)、Nash-Sutcliffe系数(Ens)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.936、0.934和0.046m,较拟合效果较差的月尺度数据源CAR模型各项指标分别提高了11.30%、11.86%和降低了32.35%。仅考虑冻融期气温的CAR模型明显优于考虑气温的CAR模型和不考虑气温的CAR模型。冻融灌区最优地下水预测模型为季尺度数据源且仅考虑冻融期气温的CAR模型,其R2为0.941,Ens为0.940,RMSE为0044m,模拟精度较高。

    Abstract:

    In order to explore the influence of different time scales data source on groundwater depth prediction and increase the accuracy of depth of groundwater prediction in the freezing and thawing irrigation area, the multivariate time series (CAR) model with monthly, quarterly and annual data were studied, and the differences, including different time scale data source and different input variables were analyzed to decrease the effects of groundwater hysteresis and nonlinear in Yongji irrigation field, Hetao Irrigation Area. The results showed that the CAR model with quarterly data source was obviously better than that with monthly and annual CAR model. The determination coefficient (R2), the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (Ens) and the rootmeansquare error (RMSE) of the CAR model with quarterly scale data were 0.936, 0.934 and 0.046m, respectively. Compared with the CAR model with monthly scale data, the R2 and Ens were increased by 1130% and 11.86% and RMSE was decreased by 32.35%. Compared with the CAR model which only considered the freezing and thawing temperature, R2 and Ens of the CAR model considering the whole year temperature and CAR model without temperature were decreased by 0.53%, 0.64% and 2.98%, 3.09%, RMSE was increased by 4.55% and 11.36%. The CAR model with quarterly scale data and only the temperature in freezing and thawing period source was the optimal groundwater predictive model in the region, and R2 was 0.941, Ens was 0.940, and RMSE was 0.044m, with high simulation accuracy, which can provide reference for groundwater depth prediction in freezing-thawing irrigation area. 

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李仙岳,崔佳琪,史海滨,孙亚楠,邢进平.不同时间尺度下冻融灌区地下水埋深CAR模型优选[J].农业机械学报,2020,51(8):247-254. LI Xianyue, CUI Jiaqi, SHI Haibin, SUN Ya’nan, XING Jinping. CAR Model Optimization of Groundwater Depth in Freezing-Thawing Irrigation Area under Different Time Scales[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(8):247-254.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-11-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-08-10
  • 出版日期: 2020-08-10