基于叶面积指数的河北中部平原夏玉米单产预测研究
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国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300603-3)


Summer Maize Yield Forecasting Based on Leaf Area Index
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    摘要:

    为解决玉米单产预测的时效性和业务化问题,以河北中部平原为研究区域,选取与籽粒产量密切相关的叶面积指数(LAI)作为遥感特征参数,对研究区2016—2018年夏玉米单产进行预测研究。基于求和自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型及径向基神经网络(RBFNN)分别逐像素预测研究区域的LAI,结果表明,基于ARIMA模型的LAI预测精度比RBF神经网络的预测精度高,1步、2步LAI预测结果的RMSE较RBF神经网络分别降低了0.18、0.14m2/m2,更适合于河北中部平原的夏玉米单产预测。基于LAI监测数据和加权LAI与夏玉米单产的相关性研究成果,并结合基于ARIMA模型的LAI预测数据,得到2016—2018年夏玉米监测单产和向前1旬、2旬和3旬的单产预测结果。结果表明,无论是县域尺度还是像素尺度,向前1、2、3旬夏玉米的单产预测精度均较高,2016—2018年县域尺度预测单产与监测单产间最大相对误差仅为3.73%。

    Abstract:

    The largescale crop yield forecasting is of great significance to grasp the state of national grain production timely and accurately and carry out effective grain macrocontrol. To improve the timeliness of maize yield forecasting, taking central plain of Hebei Province as the study area, yield forecasting was carried out for period during 2016 to 2018. The Savitzky-Golay filtered leaf area index, closely related to maize growth and yield, was selected as the characteristic parameter. The LAI data from early July 2010 to late August 2018 were used as the modeling data, and the LAI data from early September to late September of each year from 2016 to 2018 were used as the test data. The LAI data were extracted pixel by pixel to form a onedimensional time series as the input data of the model. Based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and radial basis function (RBF) neural network, LAI data of the study area were forecasted pixel by pixel. And the average absolute error and root mean square error were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the two models. The results showed that the accuracy of LAI forecasting based on the ARIMA model was better than that of RBF neural network. The RMSE of step1 and step2 LAI forecasting results was 0.18m2/m2 and 0.14m2/m2 respectively, which was lower than that of RBF neural network, indicating that the ARIMA model was more suitable for forecasting summer maize yield per unit area in the central plain of Hebei Province. Based on the research correlation of weighted LAI and summer maize yield, and ARIMA LAI forecasting results, the summer maize yield forecasting models were developed at intervals of 1ten day, 2ten day, 3ten day before the harvest. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy of maize yield per unit area at 1ten day, 2ten day, 3ten day intervals was high in both the county scale and pixel scale, and the maximum relative error between the forecasting and monitoring of yield per unit area in the county (district) scale from 2016 to 2018 was only 373%. The method can be used to forecast summer maize yield at 30 days before the harvest.

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李俐,许连香,王鹏新,齐璇,王蕾.基于叶面积指数的河北中部平原夏玉米单产预测研究[J].农业机械学报,2020,51(6):198-208. LI Li, XU Lianxiang, WANG Pengxin, QI Xuan, WANG Lei. Summer Maize Yield Forecasting Based on Leaf Area Index[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(6):198-208.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-10-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-06-10
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