基于深度学习的草地生态系统净碳交换模拟
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国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0504400)


Simulation of NEE in Grassland Ecosystems Based on Deep Learning
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    摘要:

    为应用深度学习理论及技术对高寒地区草原生态系统净碳交换(NEE)进行模型模拟,基于全球通量观测网络(FLUXNET)中内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒盟多伦县草原2007—2008年间的CO2通量数据,采用深度学习中基于注意力机制的编码器-解码器框架对NEE进行模拟,使用随机森林模型计算光量子通量密度(PPFD)、土壤温度(Ts)、空气温度(Ta)、降水量(P)、土壤含水率(SWC)和饱和水汽压差(VPD)与NEE关系的重要性得分,并分析该关系的季节性差异。结果表明,深度学习模型的均方根误差为0.28μmol/(m2·s),决定系数为0.93,相比传统的人工神经网络与支持向量机模型,分别减小0.14、0.08μmol/(m2·s)和增加0.29、0.34,说明深度学习模型具有更高预测准确度;在深度学习模型中引入注意力机制后,10次训练预测的标准差为0.002μmol/(m2·s),〖JP2〗相比普通深度学习编码器-解码器网络模型和长短期记忆网络分别减小0.005μmol/(m2·s)和0.036μmol/(m2s),验证了注意力机制在预测稳定性上的优势。由随机森林模型计算的环境因子重要性得分显示,由非生长季向生长季过渡的3—4月间,PPFD(33.5)与VPD(30.0)对NEE的变化起主导作用;进入生长季后的5—6月间,SWC(50.5)是NEE变化的主要影响因素;7月P(3.8)较少,PPFD(26.8)与SWC(60.1)协同作用NEE的变化;8月PPFD(2.8)与SWC(6.9)相对充足,VPD(41.5)与P(42.7)成为影响NEE的主要因素;9月后PPFD与P均急剧减小,并维持稳定,温度系数Q10较生长季略增大,并在1月达到最大值596,因此,在非生长季1—3月Ts(44.6)与10—12月Ts(54.2)通过影响植物呼吸成为影响NEE的决定性因子。高寒地区草地生态系统生长季的NEE变化主要受辐射、温度和水分的影响,非生长季主要受温度影响,且辐射、温度、水分的影响程度存在明显季节性差异。与支持向量机等传统机器学习算法相比,深度学习理论及技术在生态模型模拟领域具有更好的应用前景。

    Abstract:

    Aiming to apply deep learning theory and technology to model the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of grassland ecosystems in the alpine region, based on the FLUXNET CO2 flux data of the grassland in Duolun County, Xilinguole League, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, from 2007 to 2008, the attentionbased encoderdecoder framework in deep learning was used to simulate NEE, and the random forest model was used to calculate the importance score of the relationship between NEE, which included the photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD), soil temperature (Ts), air temperature (Ta), precipitation (P) 〖JP3〗and soil moisture content (SWC) and water pressure difference (VPD), and their seasonal differences in the relationship were analyzed. The result showed that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the deep learning model was 0.28μmol/(m2·s), which was declined by 0.14μmol/(m2·s) and 0.08μmol/(m2·s), respectively, compared with ANN and SVM. The coefficient of determination was 0.93, which was increased by 0.29 and 0.34, respectively. With the attention mechanism, the RMSE standard deviation predicted by 10 times training was 0.002μmol/(m2·s), which showed a reduction of 0.005μmol/(m2·s) and 0.036μmol/(m2·s) compared with Encoder-decoder network model and long short-term memory (LSTM). The attention mechanism model was more competitive in predicting stability. The importance score calculated by random forest model showed the variations of photon flux density PPFD (335) and saturated vapor pressure VPD (30.0) played a leading role in the variations of NEE from March to April. During the period from May to June after the growing season, soil water content SWC (50.5) was the main influencing factor of NEE variations. The precipitation P (3.8) showed a process of decrease in July, and the photon flux density PPFD (26.8) and the soil water content SWC (60.1) were the collaborative decision of NEE. In August, PPFD (2.8) and SWC (6.9) were relatively abundant with plentiful rainfall. The saturated vapor pressure difference VPD (41.5) and rainfall P (42.7) became the main factors affecting NEE. After September, the photon flux density PPFD and rainfall were both decreased sharply and remained stable. The temperature coefficient Q10 was increased slightly compared with the growing season and reached a maximum value of 5.96 in January, so temperature was the decisive factor affecting NEE through plant respiration in non growing season, which is 44.6 between January to March and 542 between October and December. In conclusion, radiation, temperature and moisture remarkably affected NEE in the growing season of grassland ecosystems in alpine region, temperature was the main factor in nongrowing season. Comparing with traditional machine learning algorithms such as support vector machines, deep learning theory and technology had better application prospects in the field of ecological model simulation.

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齐建东,黄俊尧.基于深度学习的草地生态系统净碳交换模拟[J].农业机械学报,2020,51(6):152-161. QI Jiandong, HUANG Junyao. Simulation of NEE in Grassland Ecosystems Based on Deep Learning[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(6):152-161.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-07-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-06-10
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