基于GIS与RS的东北森林带景观格局演变与模拟预测
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国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0507303-2)


Landscape Pattern Change and Prediction of Northeast Forest Belt Based on GIS and RS
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    摘要:

    研究东北森林带景观格局及演变,对评估我国东北地区生态安全具有重要意义。以东北森林带为研究区,选取2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年的MODIS遥感影像,将东北森林带景观类型划分为森林、草地、湿地、农田、人工表面和其他用地6类。对东北森林带2000—2015年景观格局变化进行生态系统结构、生态系统转换方向、景观指数变化分析,运用MCE-CA-Markov模型,模拟2020年东北森林带景观格局变化趋势。研究结果表明:15年间,生态系统整体呈稳定状态,前10年生态系统改善趋势较强,后5年转变趋势变缓。人工表面逐年增加,城市化进程有所加快;草地的破碎化在15年间有所加剧,而森林的破碎化程度较低且变动较小;运用MCE-CA-Markov模拟景观格局演变是可行的,模拟东北森林带2015年景观格局结果与MODIS分类结果一致,Kappa系数为0.9181,相对精度达到80.88%;预测结果显示,2020年东北森林带的森林、农田比例将进一步下降,草地、人工表面比例进一步上升。研究表明东北森林带的生态环境恢复和重建将面临较大压力。

    Abstract:

    As a part of the “two screens and three belts”, the northeast forest belt is a typical forest ecosystem in China. Studying its landscape pattern and changes is of great significance for assessing the ecological security of Northeast China. Based on the MODIS remote sensing images of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, the landscape types of the northeast forest belt were divided into six categories: forest, grassland, wetland, farmland, artificial surface and other land use. The changes of landscape pattern in the northeast forest belt from 2000 to 2015 were analyzed in terms of ecosystem structure, direction of ecosystem transformation and landscape index. MCE-CA-Markov model was used to simulate the changing trend of landscape pattern in the northeast forest belt in 2020. The results showed that during the past 15 years, the ecosystem as a whole was in a stable state. The trend of ecosystem improvement in the first ten years was better, but the trend of change in the next five years was slower. The artificial surface was increased year by year, and the urbanization process was accelerated. The fragmentation of grassland was intensified in 15 years, while the degree of fragmentation of forests iwa low, and the changes in 15 years were small. It was feasible to use MCE-CA-Markov to simulate the evolution of landscape pattern. The results of the landscape pattern of the northeast forest belt in 2015 were consistent with the MODIS classification results. The Kappa coefficient was 0.9181 and the relative accuracy was 80.88%. The forecast results of the northeast forest belt in 2020 showed that the proportion of forests and farmland would further decline, and the proportion of grassland and artificial surface would further increase. The forecast results indicated that the ecological environment restoration and reconstruction in the northeast forest belt would face great pressure.

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苏凯,王茵然,孙小婷,岳德鹏.基于GIS与RS的东北森林带景观格局演变与模拟预测[J].农业机械学报,2019,50(12):195-204.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-07-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-12-10
  • 出版日期: 2019-12-10