基于多源遥感数据和随机森林的综合旱情指标构建
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地理国情监测国家测绘地理信息局重点实验室开放基金项目(2017NGCM04)、国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0800902)、湖北省技术创新专项(重大项目)(2017ABA157)和国家自然科学基金项目(41701504)


Construction of Integrated Drought Condition Index Based on Multi-sensor Remote Sensing and Random Forest
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    摘要:

    利用随机森林方法(Random forest, RF)集成多源遥感数据,构建一种多因子集成的旱情状态指数(Integrated drought condition index, IDCI-RF),利用该指数对我国北部区域旱情状态进行评估。首先基于相关性分析方法选取旱情因子,然后利用RF回归方法构建IDCI-RF指数,并通过与Cubist和Bagging方法对比检验RF算法的拟合效果,最后对IDCI-RF指数的空间旱情监测精度进行验证。试验结果表明,所提出的IDCI-RF与实测SPEI-3的平均决定系数R2为0.54~0.68,优于Cubist和Bagging方法;IDCI-RF指数在研究区各省份均能较好地拟合实测指数,R2均在0.7以上;大部分站点的IDCI-RF变化规律与实测SPEI-3保持一致;由IDCI-RF监测图反映的研究区旱情状态与实测SPEI-3分布特征吻合度较高,表明IDCI-RF指数在实际大范围旱情监测中具有较大的应用潜力。

    Abstract:

    Drought is a complex natural hazard. A remote sensingbased drought index, the integrated drought condition index (IDCI-RF) for monitoring agricultural drought, by integrating the droughtrelated information based on random forest (RF) regression technique was proposed. The optimal droughtrelated factors over different time periods were selected through correlation analyses between 17 remote sensing drought indices and the 3month standardized precipitationevapotranspiration index (SPEI-3).Based on the RF regression method, the IDCI-RF index which considered land cover data, climate classification information, digital elevation data and multisource droughtrelated factors comprehensively was established. The determination coefficients, RMSE and MAE values were calculated between the 3month SPEI and the IDCI which was derived from the RF, Cubist and Bagging model, respectively. Results showed that compared with other two ensemble methods, IDCI-RF produced higher correlation coefficient values with in situ variables and all the determination coefficients varied between 0.54 and 0.68. Additionally, regression analyses were performed between the IDCI-RF and the in situ reference data to further evaluate the capability of regional drought condition monitoring and analyses were performed in seven main provinces of the study area. Results showed that the IDCI-RF was agreed well with the SPEI-3 in different provinces, and all the determination coefficients were above 0.7. The yearly IDCI-RF variations in 21 representative meteorological sites were compared with that of the in situ drought indices to evaluate the temporal drought monitoring capability of this index. Results showed that the IDCI-RF exhibited consistent variations with the in situ reference data at the regional scales in most cases. The spatial changes in the IDCI-RF maps were also compared with the changes in the in situ reference data at the meteorological sites to assess the IDCI-RF performance in monitoring shortterm drought conditions. Results showed that the IDCI-RF maps basically showed a similar spatial pattern with the in situ reference data. The practical application of IDCI-RF demonstrated that it can provide accurate and detailed drought condition and IDCI-RF method can be effectively used for regional agricultural drought monitoring.

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董婷,任东,邵攀,孟令奎.基于多源遥感数据和随机森林的综合旱情指标构建[J].农业机械学报,2019,50(8):200-212.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-12-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-08-10
  • 出版日期: 2019-08-10