基于XGBoost-ANN的城市绿地净碳交换模拟与特征响应
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国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0504400、2017YFC0504406)和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2015ZCQ-SB-02)


Simulation of NEE and Characterization of Urban Green-land Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Controls Based on XGBoost-ANN
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    摘要:

    为分析城市绿地净生态系统碳交换(Net ecosystem exchange,NEE)对环境因子的响应,利用涡度相关法测量了2013—2016年生长季白天的NEE数据,使用XGBoost以及ANN模型对NEE进行模拟和分析,并通过决定系数(R2)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和一致性系数(IA)4个指标评价模拟精度。结果表明,当输入因子为光合有效辐射(PAR)、饱和水汽压差(VPD)、空气温度(Ta)、相对湿度(RH)、土壤温度(Ts)、风速(WS)、10cm处土壤含水率(VWC10)时,模拟效果达到最优。其训练集精度R2为0.712,RMSE为4.394μmol/(m2·s),MAE为3.129μmol/(m2·s),IA为0.911;测试集精度R2为0.748,RMSE为4.253μmol/(m2·s),MAE为2.971μmol/(m2·s),IA为0.920。在考虑因子间相互作用后,环境因子对NEE的重要性排序从大到小依次为PAR、VPD、Ta、RH、Ts、WS、VWC10;就单环境因子而言,对NEE的重要性由大到小依次为Ta、Ts、RH。通过计算生态系统净生产力(Net ecosystem productivity,NEP,即-NEE)对主要环境因子(PAR、VPD、Ta)的偏导数可知,生态系统光合作用表观量子效率最大值为0.087,并且当PAR大于1200μmol/(m2·s)时,其不再是影响光合作用的主要因素;VPD偏导数的变化趋势表明,VPD对植物光合作用的影响以抑制性为主,当VPD过大时,偏导数趋近于0,此时植物叶片气孔闭合,抑制光合作用;Ta偏导数的变化趋势说明,随着温度的升高,光合作用速率逐渐大于呼吸作用的速率。研究表明,基于XGBoost与ANN模型能够更为精确地模拟NEE动态,在相关环境因子中,PAR、VPD、Ta是影响NEE变化的主导因子,NEE对主要影响因子的生态特征响应趋势可为理解碳循环关键过程提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Aiming to analyze the responses of urban greenland’s net ecosystem exchange (NEE) to the climatic controls and provide theoretical and technical support for carbon cycle simulation between land and atmosphere. In growing season, halfhourly daytime NEE based on eddy covariance flux data collected from 2013 to 2016 were simulated by XGBoost and back propagation artificial neural network (ANN) model. Moreover, the accuracy of model was evaluated by using the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and index of agreement (IA). The experimental results showed that ANN model presented that seven input variables (photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), air temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH), soil temperature (Ts), wind speed (WS) and volumetric water content at 10cm depth) performed best, yielding R2 of 0.712, RMSE of 4.394μmol/(m2·s), MAE of 3.129μmol/(m2·s) and IA of 0.911 on train dataset, and R2 of 0.748, RMSE of 4.253μmol/(m2·s), MAE of 2.971μmol/(m2·s) and IA of 0.920 on test dataset. After considering the function and interaction among the factors, the importance score of each environmental factor was decreased in the following order: PAR, VPD, Ta, RH, Ts, WS and VWC10, otherwise Ts would be more important than RH. In particularly, after calculating the numerical partial derivatives of main climatic controls for each halfhourly point, the numerical partial derivatives of PAR showed the ecosystem quantum yield with the value of 0.087, and it also indicated that PAR was no longer a main impact factor when value was greater than 1200μmol/(m2·s). Besides, the numerical partial derivatives of VPD expressed that VPD could mainly inhibit the photosynthesis, and the higher VPD aggravated the inhibition of photosynthesis by affecting photosynthetic rate. Furthermore, the numerical partial derivatives of Ta demonstrated that the photosynthetic rate was increased bit by bit and made the photosynthetic rate overpass respiration rate gradually. According to the result, PAR, VPD and Ta played an important role in controlling the NEE of urban greenland ecosystem. Also, XGBoost and ANN could be capable in capturing NEE dynamics and simulating the NEE with high accuracy. Meanwhile, the present result provided instant insight in underlying ecosystem physiology.

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齐建东,黄金泽,贾昕.基于XGBoost-ANN的城市绿地净碳交换模拟与特征响应[J].农业机械学报,2019,50(5):269-278.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-02-21
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-05-10
  • 出版日期: 2019-05-10