岳琼,郭萍,王友芝,张成龙,李鹏.基于区间两阶段模糊可信性约束模型的灌区水资源配置[J].农业机械学报,2019,50(4):228-235.
YUE Qiong,GUO Ping,WANG Youzhi,ZHANG Chenglong,LI Peng.Optimal Water Allocation of Irrigation District Based on Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Fuzzy Credibility Constrained Programming[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2019,50(4):228-235.
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基于区间两阶段模糊可信性约束模型的灌区水资源配置   [下载全文]
Optimal Water Allocation of Irrigation District Based on Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Fuzzy Credibility Constrained Programming   [Download Pdf][in English]
投稿时间:2018-10-18  
DOI:10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2019.04.026
中文关键词:  水资源  优化配置  漳河灌区  区间两阶段随机规划  模糊可信性约束规划  不确定性
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0403201)
作者单位
岳琼 中国农业大学 
郭萍 中国农业大学 
王友芝 中国农业大学 
张成龙 中国农业大学 
李鹏 湖北省漳河工程管理局 
中文摘要:针对灌区水资源配置系统中的复杂性和不确定性,以湖北省漳河灌区为例,构建区间两阶段模糊可信性约束规划模型,实现灌区各用水户间水资源优化配置。模型以系统经济收益最大为目标函数,引入模糊变量、离散区间和概率分布表征系统中的多重不确定性,设置可信性置信水平解决带有违规概率的模糊风险问题。求解模型得到多种情景下水量、灌溉面积优化配置结果以及系统收益,结果表明,模型可以有效处理配置系统的不确定性问题,反映系统收益与风险之间的权衡,实现灌区水资源高效配置。优化结果有助于灌区管理者协调各用水户的利益冲突,制定合理的决策方案。
YUE Qiong  GUO Ping  WANG Youzhi  ZHANG Chenglong  LI Peng
China Agricultural University,China Agricultural University,China Agricultural University,China Agricultural University and Hubei Zhanghe Project Administration Bureau
Key Words:water resources  optimal allocation  Zhanghe Irrigation District  interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming  fuzzy credibility constrained programming  uncertainty
Abstract:Due to the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, the consequent increasing conflict between limited water resources and increased water demands gradually led to unsustainability of water resources utilization in an irrigation district. Therefore, it is crucial to optimize the water allocation to alleviate water shortage and promote the sustainable development of irrigation district. Taking Zhanghe Irrigation District in Hubei Province as an example, an interval parameter two stage stochastic fuzzy credibility constrained programming was developed for optimal water allocation. In the model, the maximal system benefit was regarded as the objective function. To reflect the multiple uncertainties, fuzzy variables, discrete intervals and probability distributions were introduced into the model framework. To address the fuzzy risk problems associated with the violation constraints, fuzzy credibility constrained programming was integrated into the interval parameter two stage stochastic programming model. Meanwhile, several credibility significance levels were given to examine the system failure risk. Optimal allocation schemes were obtained in the combination of different credibility levels (λ), inflow levels and fuzzy membership levels (α). The results indicated that the water inflow was positively related to the water resources allocation and agricultural irrigation areas;water and irrigation area allocation to all divisions were increased with the decrease of credibility level, which resulted in system benefit’s expansion coupled with high violation risk. When λ was 10, the system benefit range was [0.741, 1.147] billion CNY, and when λ was set as 0.8, the system benefit reached [1.026, 1.325] billion CNY;with the increase of the α level, the system fuzzy feature was weakened, consequently the upper limit of the system benefit was gradually decreased and the lower limit of the system benefit was increased conversely;and the proposed model preferred to avoid high violation risk rather than purse high economic benefit impractically to some extent. The corresponding optimal results were helpful for managers to coordinate the conflict-laden water use issues, formulate reasonable allocation schemes, and achieve efficient utilization of water resources. Compared with the other optimal allocation in Zhanghe Irrigation District, the research had advantages as following: multiple uncertainties were considered and represented by proper mathematical methods;the tradeoff of system benefit and violation risk was reflected;multiple allocation schemes were provided under different scenarios;several engineering and non engineering measures were suggested for sustainable development of Zhanghe Irrigation District;the analysis method and the model framework can also be applied to other similar regions.

Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agriculture Machinery (CSAM), in charged of China Association for Science and Technology (CAST), sponsored by CSAM and Chinese Academy of Agricultural Mechanization Science(CAAMS), started publication in 1957. It is the earliest interdisciplinary journal in Chinese which combines agricultural and engineering. It always closely grasps the development direction of agriculture engineering disciplines and the published papers represent the highest academic level of agriculture engineering in China. Currently, nearly 8,000 papers have been already published. There are around 3,000 papers contributed to the journal each year, but only around 600 of them will be accepted. Transactions of CSAM focuses on a wide range of agricultural machinery, irrigation, electronics, robotics, agro-products engineering, biological energy, agricultural structures and environment and more. Subjects in Transactions of the CSAM have been embodied by many internationally well-known index systems, such as: EI Compendex, CA, CSA, etc.

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