基于SCE-UA算法的小麦穗分化期模拟模型参数优化
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国家自然科学基金项目(41471342)


Parameters Optimization of Wheat Spike Differentiation Stages Model Based on SCE-UA Algorithm
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    摘要:

    以河南省商丘市为研究区,首先采用OAT(One-at-a-time)方法对WheatGrow模型的输入品种参数进行敏感性分析,在此基础上以抽穗期的开始日期作为约束条件构建代价函数,引入SCE-UA(Shuffled complex evolution method developed at the University of Arizona)算法求解得到最优作物品种参数组合,并利用2015—2016年度和2016—2017年度田间实验资料对SCE-UA算法的有效性进行验证。结果表明,基本早熟性参数对穗分化期的模拟结果影响最显著,温度敏感性参数比光周期敏感性参数和生理春化时间参数具有更高的敏感度,生理春化时间的敏感度最低。基于优化后的参数得到的穗分化期模拟值与观测值之间的平均绝对误差(Mean absolute error,MAE)和均方根误差(Root mean square error,RMSE)均小于3d,表明SCE-UA算法可以有效地获取WheatGrow模型最优品种参数组合。本研究可为WheatGrow模型品种参数的调整优化和模型的推广应用提供依据。

    Abstract:

    WheatGrow model is a mechanism model for the simulation of growth and development process of wheat spike differentiation, but the crop varietal parameters to drive the model are more difficult to obtain, which greatly limits its application. Shangqiu, which is in Henan Provice was taken as the studying area and the sensitivity of varietal parameters of WheatGrow model was analyzed with the method of one-at-a-time (OAT). On this basis, the cost function was constructed with start date of heading as the constraint condition, and shuffled complex evolution method developed at the University of Arizona(SCE-UA) was applied to search for optimal varietal parameters. At last, a series of experiments on spike differentiation stages were carried out in two years (from 2015 to 2016 and from 2016 to 2017) to verify optimized results and the model. The results showed that intrinsic earliness (IE) had the most significant effect on the simulation results of spike differentiation stages, temperature sensitivity (TS) had higher sensitivity than photoperiod sensitivity (PS) and physiological vernalization time (PVT), and the sensitivity of physiological vernalization time (PVT) was the lowest of all varietal parameters. The mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) between the simulated and the observed values of the spike differentiation stages based on the optimized parameters were both less than three days, indicating that the SCE-UA algorithm can effectively obtain the optimal parameters of WheatGrow model. Therefore, the SCE-UA algorithm was a feasible optimization method for WheatGrow calibration and validation.

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刘峻明,潘佩珠,王鹏新,崔珍珍,胡新.基于SCE-UA算法的小麦穗分化期模拟模型参数优化[J].农业机械学报,2018,49(4):232-240.

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  • 收稿日期:2017-09-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-04-10
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