二次聚类与神经网络结合的日光温室温度二步预测方法
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国家自然科学基金项目(61601471)、北京市自然科学基金项目(4164090)和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2017QC077)


Two-steps Prediction Method of Temperature in Solar Greenhouse Based on Twice Cluster Analysis and Neural Network
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    摘要:

    精确预测日光温室温度是实现对温室精准调控的前提。由于温室是复杂非线性系统,受室内外众多环境因素影响,且部分因素难以准确测量和建模,因此,难以通过机理分析建立室外因素精确影响室内温度的物理模型。而现有时间序列分析、人工神经网络等仅基于数据的方法预测准确度也较低。本文提出连续时间段聚类与BP神经网络相结合的二步日光温室温度预测方法。首先,进行二次聚类,对室外温度情况相似的日进行聚类,并将全年划分为若干个类似时间段,根据连续时间段内相似日的数量进行聚类,将全年内的连续时间段归入若干类别。其次,对不同类别的时间段,分别采用BP神经网络建立室外温度、相对湿度、太阳辐射、风速和温室室内温度间的关联模型,通过数据训练,能够较为准确的根据室外环境数据预测室内温度。通过涿州实验农场2年数据试验验证,通过二次聚类,全年连续时间段可划分为3类,通过分别建立BP神经网络并分别训练,结果表明本方法预测误差仅为6.23%,与现有未分类的BP神经网络预测算法对比,本文方法有效地提高了准确度,平均误差降低5.4个百分点。

    Abstract:

    Accurate prediction of indoor temperature in solar greenhouse is a precondition to accurately control the greenhouse. Because indoor temperature in solar greenhouse is affected by several outdoor environmental factors and the heat conduction mechanism is complex, indoor temperature changes severely in different time. Thus, it is difficult to establish an accurate physical model that describes how outdoor factors affect indoor temperature by mechanism analysis. The accuracy of existing prediction methods based on neural network is low. So,this paper proposed a two-steps method to predict indoor temperature in solar greenhouse based on twice cluster analysis and back propagation (BP) neural network. The first step of the method was two clustering. Similar days were classified to several categories according to clustering of outdoor temperature. Then a whole year training data were split to several continuous time frames.The frames were classified into different categories by clustering of similar days. In the second step, for different categories of time frames, different BP neural networks respectively modeled the relationships between input variables i.e. outdoor temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed and output variable i.e. indoor temperature. The models could be used to predict indoor temperature in solar greenhouse when the outdoor environment was detected. In experiments, two years data was collected from Zhuozhou. For the data, continuous time frames were split to 3 categories.Through the establishment of BP neural network and training respectively, the results show that the prediction error of this method is only 6.23%. Compared with the existing BP neural network prediction algorithm, this method can effectively improve the accuracy, and the average error is reduced by 5.4 percentage points.

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陈昕,唐湘璐,李想,刘天麒,贾璐,卢韬.二次聚类与神经网络结合的日光温室温度二步预测方法[J].农业机械学报,2017,48(s1):353-358.

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  • 收稿日期:2017-07-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-12-10
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