基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用情景模拟与驱动力分析
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国土资源部公益性行业科研专项(20131100201)


Driving Force Analysis and Scenarios Simulation of Land Use Based on Cell Automata Model
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    摘要:

    土地利用格局的形成过程比其最终形成的结果更为重要。本文以哈尔滨市双城区为例,利用不同时期的土地利用数据,在土地利用变化关键驱动因素分析的基础上,选取了对土地利用变化影响较大的距离变量、邻近土地利用类型数量、单元自然属性、社会经济因素等4方面14个驱动力因子,建立了基于元胞自动机(CA)与人工神经网络(ANN)相结合的土地利用空间格局模拟模型。在此基础上,对研究区自然禀赋、社会经济快速发展、基本农田保护及土地利用规划等不同情景驱动机制下的土地利用空间格局进行了时空模拟,以此解析土地利用变化过程与驱动力因素的响应关系。模拟结果显示:自然禀赋情景下,各地类变化趋势与现在保持一致;在社会经济快速发展情景下,建设用地面积增加明显,主要由旱地和其他用地转入;在基本农田保护情景下,耕地面积比较稳定,各地类变化趋势较为缓和;在土地利用规划情景下,各地类变化较为合理,兼顾耕地保护和经济发展。研究结果显示,该方法对哈尔滨市双城区土地利用格局变化的驱动机制具有较好的解释作用。

    Abstract:

    Simulation of land use spatial pattern can reveal the geological regularity and identify the driving factors of regional land use change from multi-scales, which is an important way to clarify land use changes process and pattern for the future period. This paper took Shuangcheng District in Harbin City as a case and developed a simulation model based on Cellular automata (CA) combined with Artificial neural network (ANN). Totally 14 driving force factors were selected from four aspects which had significant impact on land use change, including the distance variables, number of adjacent land use type, unit natural attribute and socio-economic factors. They were used in the ANN-CA model to simulate land use change of Shuangcheng District from 2002 to 2013. The accuracy of simulation was verified by using the actual interpretation data in 2013 and it was 85.26%, which showed the model could be used to simulate the LUCC of Shuangcheng District. Furthermore, the land use pattern in 2024 was simulated under four scenarios: natural endowment scenario, rapid economic development scenario, basic farmland protection scenario and land use planning scenario. The results showed that land use pattern presented obvious spatial diversity under different scenarios, different driving factors resulted in diverse changes of various land-use types, and socio-economic factors played an important role in the conversion of land use types. The study outcomes could provide scientific decision support for the sustainable utilization of land resources in Shuangcheng District.

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孙玮健,张荣群,艾东,王大海.基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用情景模拟与驱动力分析[J].农业机械学报,2017,48(s1):254-261. SUN Weijian, ZHANG Rongqun, AI Dong, WANG Dahai. Driving Force Analysis and Scenarios Simulation of Land Use Based on Cell Automata Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(s1):254-261

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  • 收稿日期:2017-07-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-12-10
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