Hairtail is regarded as one of the main raw materials for surimi-based products in China because of its large production and abundant nutrition. Hairtail fish ball is welcomed by the people. However, the fishy odor develops gradually during refrigerated storage, which influences the eating quality and commodity value. So, it is important to predict the change of fishy odor. To evaluate and predict the fishy odor in hairtail fish ball during refrigerated storage, the concentration of fishy odor compounds was detected every 3d at 0℃, 3℃, 6℃, 9℃ and 12℃. In addition, fishy-odor activity value (F) was calculated through the ratio of concentration of fishy odor compounds to corresponding threshold. The change curve of F was fitted using zero order reaction equation and one order reaction equation. The fitting coefficient of zero order reaction curve was higher than that of one order reaction curve, which was greater than 0.9. The change rate K was the slope of zero order reaction fitting curve. Arrhenius equation described the relationship of change rate K and temperature T, as K=2.332×1013e-8190/T.The predictive model of fishy odor was established as F=2.332×1013e-8190/Tt+5.035. The actual and predictive F vales during storage were compared, and the relative errors were within 15%. Therefore, the model was proved to be effective to predict the change of fishy odor in surimi products during storage.