基于EMD和ELM的工厂化育苗水温组合预测模型
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国家自然科学基金项目(61471133、61571444、61473331)、“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD35B07)、广东省科技计划项目(2013B090500127、2013B021600014、2015A070709015、2015A020209171)、广东省自然科学基金项目(S2013010014629、2014A030307049)和广东海洋大学创新强校工程项目(GDOU2014050227)


Combined Prediction Model of Water Temperature in Industrialized Cultivation Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine
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    摘要:

    针对南美白对虾工厂化育苗水温时序数据存在非线性、非平稳等特点,采用传统单项预测方法预测精度低、鲁棒性差等问题,提出基于经验模态分解(EMD)、相空间重构和极限学习机(ELM)的非线性组合预测模型。在建模过程中,采用EMD方法将工厂化育苗水温原始时序数据多尺度分解为一系列固有模态分量(IMF),并对各分量进行相空间重构,在相空间中对ELM训练建模,分别对各IMF序列进行预测,将各分量预测结果进行叠加重构得到原始水温序列的预测值。将该模型应用于广东省湛江市南美白对虾工厂化育苗水温预测中,结果表明,该模型取得了较好预测效果。与BP神经网络、标准LSSVR和标准ELM等单项预测模型对比分析,模型评价指标MAPE、RMSE和MAE分别为0.0158、0.0329和0.0962,均表明提出的组合模型具有较高预测精度和泛化性能,为南美白对虾工厂化育苗水温调控管理提供了一种有效的技术支持。

    Abstract:

    Since the sequence data of water temperature in industrialized Litopenaeus vannamei breeding is somehow non-linear, unsteady, and such problems like lower precision in the predicting results, low robustness will appear when utilizing the traditional single item predicting method, a combined non-linear prediction model based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD), phase space reconstruction and extreme learning machine (ELM) was proposed. In modeling, the EMD method was adopted to decompose the original time sequence data of water temperature in industrialized Litopenaeus vannamei breeding into a series of intrinsic mode function (IMF), and reconstruct the phase space of each component, set models of ELM training in phase space, predict each IMF sequence, and then combine and reconstruct the predicted values of each component to get the predicted value of original water temperature sequence. EMD—ELM was tested and compared with other algorithms by applying it to predict water temperature in industrialized Litopenaeus vannamei breeding pond of Zhanjiang City. The experimental results showed that the proposed combination prediction model of EMD—ELM had better prediction effect than the standard extreme learning machine (ELM), least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) and BP neural network methods. And the relative mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) between the EMD—ELM and standard LSSVR models were 62.82%、45.62% and 42.77%, respectively, under the same experimental conditions. The relative MAPE, RMSE and MAE between the EMD—ELM and standard ELM models were 34.44%、28.94% and 25.37%, respectively. The relative MAPE, RMSE and MAE between the EMD—ELM and BPNN models were 77.0%、60.83% and 54.77%, respectively. It was obvious that the EMD—ELM had high forecast accuracy and generalization ability. The research results provided a new effective technical support for water temperature management and control in the industrialized cultivation of Litopenaeus vannamei.

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徐龙琴,张军,李乾川,刘双印,李道亮.基于EMD和ELM的工厂化育苗水温组合预测模型[J].农业机械学报,2016,47(4):265-271,308.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-11-01
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-04-10
  • 出版日期: 2016-04-10