基于气温和 DC - BP - NN 的河西走廊月度 ETo 估算模型
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(61273329)


Monthly Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Estimation Model Based on Air Temperature and DC-BP-NN in Hexi Corridor
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    摘要:

    针对参考作物蒸散量(Reference crop evapotranspiration,ETo)估算模型中,标准估算模型——FAO Penman-Monteith(FAO-PM)模型需要充分的气象数据,而基于气温的估算模型精度不足的问题,参考FAO-PM模型结构,基于气温和月序数,融合分治法(Divide and conquer,DC)和误差反向传播神经网络(Back propagation neural network,BP-NN),提出了一种采用DC-BP-NN的月度ETo估算模型;以FAO-PM模型计算的ETo为标准,利用河西走廊酒泉气象站1958年1月—2013年9月的月度气象数据,将DC-BP-NN模型与其余6种基于气温的ETo估算模型(Blaney-Criddle模型、Hargreaves-Samani模型、2种改进的Hargreaves-Samani模型、BP-NN模型、BP-NN1模型)进行对比。结果表明,DC-BP-NN模型的估算精度(均方根误差5.99 mm/月,平均偏差0.99 mm/月,平均绝对百分误差7.18%,决定系数0.988 6)优于其余6种ETo估算模型,该模型可以用于河西走廊农田气象数据不充分条件下的月度ETo估算。

    Abstract:

    As the standard method for estimating reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), FAO Penman- Monteith (FAO-PM) model incorporates both the thermodynamic aspect and the aerodynamic aspect of evapotranspiration. The model needs complete agricultural meteorological data to estimate ETo, which is considered to be a difficult task in many locations of Hexi Corridor. Meanwhile, the accuracy of the temperature-based models is insufficient. In order to solve these problems, a monthly ETo estimation model (DC-BP-NN) was proposed, which integrated air-temperature, divide and conquer (DC) method and back propagation neural network (BP-NN) with the structure of FAO-PM model. The model consisted of two BP-NN models: the radiation BP-NN model and the aerodynamic BP-NN model. In the experiments, the data was from Jiuquan Weather Station in Hexi Corridor. The reference standard was obtained by FAO-PM model. The results showed that DC-BP-NN model was superior to the other six ETo estimation models, including Blaney-Criddle model, Hargreaves-Samani model, two improved Hargreaves-Samani models, BP-NN model and BP-NN1 model (BP-NN model was based on air temperature and monthly ordinal number), with average root mean square error of 5.99 mm/month, mean bias error of 0.99 mm/month, mean absolute percentage error of 7.18% and determination coefficient of 0.988 6. Therefore, the DC-BP-NN model can be used for estimating monthly ETo in Hexi Corridor with insufficient meteorological data.

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陈晟,李淼,陈雷,杨振新,孙凯.基于气温和 DC - BP - NN 的河西走廊月度 ETo 估算模型[J].农业机械学报,2015,46(12):140-147.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-04-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-12-10
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