Aiming at the phenomenon of the production logistics bottleneck shifting because of uncertain manufacturing circumstances in manufacturing shop, the bottleneck shifting factors was firstly categorized into capability factor, requirement factor and capability-requirement factor, a digital description of bottleneck shifting factors was provided through time-capability factor, time-requirement factor and quality assurance capability factor to offer data for the research on the coupling mechanism of bottleneck shifting factors. Markov chain was used to describe the state space and transition probability of different bottleneck shifting factors and to establish contribution function with the aim of realizing the quantitative analysis on coupling mechanism of bottleneck shifting factors. Taking contribution degree and quality assurance capability as parameters, the mathematic model of the Bottleneck index was then built to measure the possibility of the manufacturing cell becoming bottleneck and to provide production process control and make the optimization with technical support in the further way. An example of forecasting and monitoring the production logistics bottleneck in one manufacturing shop was given to prove the validation and practicability of the prediction method.