县域耕地边际化风险评价与验证
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国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41501189)和河南省高校青年骨干教师项目(2019GGJS134)


Risk Evaluation and Verification of Marginalization of Farmland in County Area
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    摘要:

    耕地边际化是耕地利用净收益从多到少的过程,而撂荒则是耕地边际化的极端表现。以河南省孟津县为例,从耕地利用的自然适宜、耕作条件与机会成本等方面,对耕地边际化的风险进行多维度评价,并运用遥感影像数据对评价结果进行验证,识别出现阶段影响耕地边际化的主导因素。结果表明:就耕地的自然适宜评价结果而言,处于高度适宜、中度适宜、低度适宜的面积分别为18900、14164、8881km2,自然适宜性是影响耕地边际化利用的基础条件,将自然适宜性差的耕地调整恢复成林地,有助于区域脆弱生态的修复;就耕地的耕作便利度来说,处于高度便利、中度便利、低度便利的面积分别为:10369、21405、10171km2,对自然适宜度高而耕作不便利的耕地进行综合整治是提高耕地利用效率、延缓耕地边际化利用的重要途径;根据机会成本的耕地边际化风险评价结果,处于高机会成本、中机会成本、低机会成本的面积分别为11932、16457、13556km2。由于孟津县高机会成本区的耕地利用能够维持较高的利润,因此耕地弃耕的情况较少发生。通过对土地变更数据库内耕地和遥感影像的叠置分析,发现现阶段孟津县耕地边际化受自然适宜与耕作条件的影响较大。

    Abstract:

    The marginalization of farmland is the progression from high to low net profit of farmland utilization, and the abandonment of farmland is its extreme expression. This research was based on the perspective of farmland parcelization while also taking into account the natural suitability of the farmland, farming conditions, opportunity costs, and other relevant factors. Using a stepwise algorithm, a multidimensional analysis on the various factors that influencing the marginalization of farmland was performed, which was followed by verification of the outcome of analysis using remote sensing image data to identify the main factors that influencing the marginalization of farmland. The results of natural suitability evaluation showed that areas with high suitable, medium suitable and low suitability were 18900km2, 14164km2 and 8881km2, respectively, and natural suitability was the basic condition that affected the marginal utilization of cultivated land. The adjustment of cultivated land with poor natural suitability would be restored to forest land, which was conducive to the restoration of the regions fragile ecology. The areas with highly convenient, moderately convenien and inconvenient were 10369km2, 21405km2 and 10171km2, respectively. It was an important way to improve the utilization efficiency of cultivated land to carry on comprehensive management to the cultivated land with high natural suitability and inconvenient cultivation. And the areas with high opportunity cost, medium opportunity cost and low opportunity cost were 11932km2, 16457km2 and 13556km2, respectively, and the utilization of cultivated land in the area of high opportunity cost in Mengjin County can maintain a high profit, so the abandonment of cultivated land was rare. Using an overlay analysis of the database statistics of farmland and reforested land, it was discovered that currently, natural suitability and farming conditions had a more significant influence on farmland marginalization in Mengjin County. The research results may be used as a reference to formulate a more effective farmland utilization policy locally in the future.

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关小克,王秀丽,陈伟强.县域耕地边际化风险评价与验证[J].农业机械学报,2020,51(2):153-160. GUAN Xiaoke, WANG Xiuli, CHEN Weiqiang. Risk Evaluation and Verification of Marginalization of Farmland in County Area[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(2):153-160.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-08-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-02-10
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