A GM(1, 1) model for quantificational predicting the mechanization level in China was established by integrated gray predicting theory with datum smoothness based on statistical data from the year 1986 to 2005. The GM(1, 1) model fitted well by verified. And prediction precision is available by predict the mechanization level of 2006. A prediction of the mechanization levels from the year 2007 to 2020 was also conducted by the GM(1, 1) model. The result showed that the integrated level of mechanically would reach to 68 percent in the year of 2020. And the model showed better prediction compared with qualitative analysis and other results of prediction.
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张睿,高焕文.基于灰色GM(1,1)的农业机械化水平预测模[J].农业机械学报,2009,40(2):91-95. Model of Agricultural Mechanization Level in China Based on GM(1,1)[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2009,40(2):91-95