Abstract: After analyzing the deficiency of traditional exponential smoothing prediction model, a novel prediction model with the concepts of dynamic smoothing parameter and initial value was proposed and applied to prediction compensation-control in small-batch production. In the presented model, with an optimal algorithm based on steepest-descent, the dynamic smoothing parameter and initial value were adjusted with new sample of the time-series automatically. Moreover, the presented model was used as the key technology of quality predicting in machining plungers of oil pump mouth, the practical results showed that compared with auto-regressive(AR), gray and traditional exponential smoothing model, the presented one is higher in precision and better in adaptation. |
Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agriculture Machinery (CSAM), in charged of China Association for Science and Technology (CAST), sponsored by CSAM and Chinese Academy of Agricultural Mechanization Science(CAAMS), started publication in 1957. It is the earliest interdisciplinary journal in Chinese which combines agricultural and engineering. It always closely grasps the development direction of agriculture engineering disciplines and the published papers represent the highest academic level of agriculture engineering in China. Currently, nearly 8,000 papers have been already published. There are around 3,000 papers contributed to the journal each year, but only around 600 of them will be accepted. Transactions of CSAM focuses on a wide range of agricultural machinery, irrigation, electronics, robotics, agro-products engineering, biological energy, agricultural structures and environment and more. Subjects in Transactions of the CSAM have been embodied by many internationally well-known index systems, such as: EI Compendex, CA, CSA, etc.
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