吴德会.基于动态指数平滑模型的小批量制造过程质量预测[J].农业机械学报,2008,39(8):164-168.
.[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2008,39(8):164-168.
摘要点击次数: 2456
全文下载次数: 2
基于动态指数平滑模型的小批量制造过程质量预测   [下载全文]
   [Download Pdf][in English]
  
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1298.[year].[issue].[sequence]
中文关键词:  预测  质量控制  小批量  动态指数平滑模型  加工误差
基金项目:
吴德会
九江大学
中文摘要:在对传统指数平滑预测模型局限性分析的基础上,通过引入动态平滑参数和动态平滑初值的概念,提出一种能自动适应预测进程的新模型,并将其应用于小批量生产过程的预测补偿控制领域。通过基于最速梯度法的优化算法,模型的动态平滑参数和平滑初值能随着新观测值的加入而自动调整。将该模型作为关键技术应用于柱塞套内孔加工质量预测,并与时序AR模型、灰色GM模型及传统指数平滑模型的结果进行对比,表明提出的模型具有一定的优越性。
Key Words:
Abstract: After analyzing the deficiency of traditional exponential smoothing prediction model, a novel prediction model with the concepts of dynamic smoothing parameter and initial value was proposed and applied to prediction compensation-control in small-batch production. In the presented model, with an optimal algorithm based on steepest-descent, the dynamic smoothing parameter and initial value were adjusted with new sample of the time-series automatically. Moreover, the presented model was used as the key technology of quality predicting in machining plungers of oil pump mouth, the practical results showed that compared with auto-regressive(AR), gray and traditional exponential smoothing model, the presented one is higher in precision and better in adaptation.

Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agriculture Machinery (CSAM), in charged of China Association for Science and Technology (CAST), sponsored by CSAM and Chinese Academy of Agricultural Mechanization Science(CAAMS), started publication in 1957. It is the earliest interdisciplinary journal in Chinese which combines agricultural and engineering. It always closely grasps the development direction of agriculture engineering disciplines and the published papers represent the highest academic level of agriculture engineering in China. Currently, nearly 8,000 papers have been already published. There are around 3,000 papers contributed to the journal each year, but only around 600 of them will be accepted. Transactions of CSAM focuses on a wide range of agricultural machinery, irrigation, electronics, robotics, agro-products engineering, biological energy, agricultural structures and environment and more. Subjects in Transactions of the CSAM have been embodied by many internationally well-known index systems, such as: EI Compendex, CA, CSA, etc.

   下载PDF阅读器