农业机械学报

李衡,陈国银,王世晶,张震,张志伟,靳焕焕.基于CLUE-S情景模拟的挠力河流域耕地适宜性评价研究[J].农业机械学报,2023,54(10):329-339.
LI Heng,CHEN Guoyin,WANG Shijing,ZHANG Zhen,ZHANG Zhiwei,JIN Huanhuan.Suitability Evaluation of Cultivated Land in Naoli River Basin Based on CLUE-S Scenario Simulation[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2023,54(10):329-339.

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基于CLUE-S情景模拟的挠力河流域耕地适宜性评价研究 [下载全文]

Suitability Evaluation of Cultivated Land in Naoli River Basin Based on CLUE-S Scenario Simulation [Download Pdf][in English]

投稿时间：2023-02-18

DOI：10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2023.10.032

中文关键词: 耕地适宜性评价 CLUE-S模型转移矩阵土地利用变化挠力河流域

基金项目:黑龙江省自然科学基金项目（LH2020E003）

作者	单位
李衡	东北农业大学
陈国银	东北农业大学
王世晶	东北农业大学
张震	东北农业大学
张志伟	东北农业大学
靳焕焕	东北农业大学

中文摘要:以挠力河流域为研究区，选择2000、2010、2020年3期土地利用数据，从土地利用动态度和转移矩阵两方面分析土地利用时空变化，运用CLUE-S模型对研究区2030年土地利用变化格局进行模拟验证，设基线、农业发展和生态保护3种情景预测2030年土地利用变化格局，最后对3种情景下耕地适宜性进行评价。结果表明：研究区土地利用类型以耕地为主，2000—2020年森林、湿地、水体和人造地表呈增加趋势，耕地和草地呈减少趋势。2000—2020年土地利用转移主要发生在耕地、草地和森林之间，2000—2010年草地面积转入最多，耕地次之，森林最少，转出面积相反；2010—2020年森林转入转出面积最多，草地次之，耕地最少。CLUE-S模型对挠力河流域土地利用变化具有良好的模拟能力，Kappa系数为0.894，模拟总体精度为91.18%；基线情景下耕地、草地和水体地类面积减少，其他地类面积增加；农业发展情景下耕地面积增加23.68%，人造地表面积未发生变化，其他地类面积均较少；生态保护情景下与农业发展情景正好相反。依评价指标体系和评价模型，分析计算出3种情景下耕地位于适宜区的面积占研究区总面积的96%以上，不适宜区占比低于4%。研究结果可为加强未来耕地质量建设与管理、落实耕地保护目标和科学管理土地资源提供科学决策。

LI Heng CHEN Guoyin WANG Shijing ZHANG Zhen ZHANG Zhiwei JIN Huanhuan

Northeast Agricultural University

Key Words:cultivated land suitability evaluation CLUE-S model transfer matrix land use change Naoli River basin

Abstract:Taking the Naoli River basin as the research area, three periods of land use data from 2000, 2010 and 2020 were selected to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of land use from two aspects: land use dynamics and transfer matrix. The CLUE-S model was used to simulate and verify the land use change pattern in the study area in 2030. Three scenarios, namely baseline, agricultural development, and ecological protection, were used to predict the land use change pattern in 2030. Finally, the adaptability of cultivated land under these three scenarios was evaluated. The results indicated that the land use type in the study area was mainly cultivated land. From 2000 to 2020, forests, wetlands, water bodies and artificial surfaces showed an increasing trend, while cultivated land and grassland showed a decreasing trend. From 2000 to 2020, land use transfer mainly occurred between cultivated land, grassland and forests. From 2000 to 2010, the grassland area transferred most, followed by cultivated land and forests, with the opposite area transferred out. From 2010 to 2020, the area of forest transfer in and out was the highest, followed by grassland and cultivated land. The CLUE-S model had good simulation ability for land use change in the Naoli River basin, with Kappa coefficient of 0.894 and overall simulation accuracy of 91.18%. Under the baseline scenario, the area of cultivated land, grassland and water bodies was decreased, while the area of other land types was increased. In the context of agricultural development, the area of cultivated land was increased by 23.68%, and the artificial surface area was not changed, while the area of other land types was relatively small. The ecological protection scenario was exactly the opposite to the agricultural development scenario. According to the evaluation index system and the evaluation model, it was calculated that the cultivated land located in the suitable area accounted for more than 96% of the total area, and the unsuitable area accounted for less than 4%. The results can provide scientific decision making for cultivated land quality construction and management in the future.

Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agriculture Machinery (CSAM), in charged of China Association for Science and Technology (CAST), sponsored by CSAM and Chinese Academy of Agricultural Mechanization Science(CAAMS), started publication in 1957. It is the earliest interdisciplinary journal in Chinese which combines agricultural and engineering. It always closely grasps the development direction of agriculture engineering disciplines and the published papers represent the highest academic level of agriculture engineering in China. Currently, nearly 8,000 papers have been already published. There are around 3,000 papers contributed to the journal each year, but only around 600 of them will be accepted. Transactions of CSAM focuses on a wide range of agricultural machinery, irrigation, electronics, robotics, agro-products engineering, biological energy, agricultural structures and environment and more. Subjects in Transactions of the CSAM have been embodied by many internationally well-known index systems, such as: EI Compendex, CA, CSA, etc.

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