基于IBAS和LSTM网络的池塘水溶解氧含量预测
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国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFD0900201)


Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Model in Ponds Based on Improved Beetle Antennae Search and LSTM Network
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    摘要:

    为了提高池塘水体中溶解氧含量(DO)预测精度,本文提出了一种基于改进的天牛须搜索算法(Improved beetle antennae search algorithm, IBAS)和长短期记忆网络(Long short-term memory, LSTM)相结合的溶解氧含量预测模型。为了降低模型输入维度,提高模型计算效率,采用皮尔逊(Pearson)相关系数分析法得出各因子与溶解氧含量之间的相关性,提取强关联因子作为模型输入特征;为了使天牛须搜索算法(Beetle antennae search algorithm, BAS)在全局搜索和局部搜索中达到平衡,提高算法的收敛速度,提出衰减因子指数递减策略改进天牛须搜索算法,将衰减因子γ与迭代次数相联系并呈指数函数递减;通过IBAS优化LSTM网络,得到最优参数组合策略,建立P-IBAS-LSTM非线性溶解氧含量预测模型。并利用该模型对江苏省宜兴市水产养殖研究中心某池塘水体溶解氧含量进行验证,预测2h后的溶解氧含量。在与常见的7种模型对比中发现,本文所提出的方法在各项指标中都取得了最优的性能,均方误差(MSE)为0.6442mg2/L2、均方根误差(RMSE)为0.8026mg/L、平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.5306mg/L。实验结果表明本文所提出的模型预测精度更高,泛化性能更强,可以满足实际对溶解氧含量准确预测的需求,并为池塘养殖中水质预警控制提供参考。

    Abstract:

    To improve the prediction accuracy of dissolved oxygen content in ponds, a novel long short-term memory (LSTM) optimized by an improved beetle antennae search algorithm (IBAS) was proposed. Firstly, Pearson correlation coefficient was used to obtain the linear correlation between each factor and dissolved oxygen. The key impact factors of dissolved oxygen were selected by Pearson correlation coefficient as the input feature, which can reduce the input dimension, eliminate the correlations of original variable, and improve the calculation efficiency of the model. Secondly, to balance the global search and local search, and improve the convergence speed of beetle antennae search algorithm (BAS), an IBAS with exponential decreasing strategy of attenuation factor was proposed, which linked the attenuation factor eta with the number of iterations. Finally, LSTM network was optimized by IBAS to get the best parameter combination strategy to construct a P-IBAS-LSTM prediction model between dissolved oxygen and these factors. Based on the presented model, the dissolved oxygen was predicted for an experimental pond during April 28 th to September 8 th, 2020 in the Research Center of Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. In the case of the same data, the mean squared error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and the average absolute error (MAE) of the P-IBAS-LSTM were 0.6442mg2/L2, 0.8026mg/L, 0.5306mg/L, respectively. The experimental results showed that the proposed model of P-IBAS-LSTM had higher performance and stronger generalization performance when compared with common prediction models, which could meet the actual needs of predicting dissolved oxygen accurately and help farmers make decisions in ponds.

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孙龙清,吴雨寒,孙希蓓,张 松.基于IBAS和LSTM网络的池塘水溶解氧含量预测[J].农业机械学报,2021,52(S0):252-260. SUN Longqing, WU Yuhan, SUN Xibei, ZHANG Song. Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Model in Ponds Based on Improved Beetle Antennae Search and LSTM Network[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2021,52(S0):252-260.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-07-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-11-10
  • 出版日期: 2021-12-10