京津冀城市群生态空间格局变化与地表温度关系研究
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自然资源部地球观测与时空信息科学重点实验室开放基金项目(201913)、中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2018M641218)和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(BLX201806)


Relationship between Change of Ecological Spatial Pattern and Land Surface Temperature in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration
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    摘要:

    为探究京津冀城市群树木覆盖率(TC)、短植被覆盖率(SV)与裸地覆比率(BG)变化趋势及生态空间格局对地表温度的影响,基于京津冀城市群的MODIS遥感数据,运用景观生态学理论并结合空间计量经济学相关原理研究了京津冀生态空间与地表温度的格局特征,运用Pearson相关性探究了两者的相关性,分别运用空间双变量自相关与空间自回归模型探究了两者的空间相关性。结果表明:京津冀地区中部、东北部以及西南边界地区的树木覆盖率呈现增长趋势,东北、西南边界和东部沿海地区的短植被覆盖率呈上升趋势,承德市西北部和南部、保定市、石家庄市、邢台市和邯郸市的部分区域具有土地裸露风险。提取了京津冀城市群的绿色空间和蓝色空间,各样区内蓝绿空间与地表温度的空间分布具有显著的空间自相关性。样区5、7位于河北省北部,林地景观比例较高,相关性以及双变量空间自相关性高于其他样区,这与景观优势度、斑块破碎度有关。样区1、4生态空间比例较低,对地表温度影响有限。景观类型比例对地表温度影响较大,样区7的生态空间比例较高,并且生态空间斑块集中连片,对地表温度影响明显。样区1~7的空间滞后模型与空间误差模型拟合效果远优于OLS模型。各个样区空间误差模型的R2大于空间滞后模型,空间误差模型解释变量的能力更强。各个样区空间误差模型的LIK值较大,AIC、SC以及模型残差的Moran’s I值较小,空间误差模型的拟合效果优于空间滞后模型。

    Abstract:

    Based on MODIS remote sensing data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, using landscape ecology and related principles of spatial econometrics, the pattern characteristics of ecological space and surface temperature in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were discussed, Pearson correlation was used to explore the correlation between the two, and the spatial bivariate autocorrelation and spatial autocorrelation were used to explore the spatial correlation of the two. The results showed that the forest coverage in the central, northeast and southwest borders of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area was increasing, the cultivated land coverage in the northeast, southwest and east coastal areas was increasing, and some areas of Chengde City in the northwest and south, Baoding City, Shijiazhuang City, Xingtai City and Handan City were at risk of land exposure. The green space or blue space in July 2018 was extracted, and the spatial distribution of ecological space and surface temperature in various areas had significant spatial autocorrelation. Sample areas 5 and 7 were located in the north of Hebei Province. The proportion of forest landscape was higher, and the correlation and bivariate spatial autocorrelation were higher than that of other sample areas, which were related to landscape dominance and patch fragmentation. Due to the low proportion of ecological space between sample area 1 and sample area 4, the impact on LST was limited. The plant had a large impact on LST image, the proportion of sample area 7 was high, and the effect of ecological space patches and concentrated patches on surface temperature was obvious. The fitting effect of the spatial lag model and the spatial error model of sample areas 1 to 7 was much better than that of OLS. R2 of the spatial error model of each sample area was greater than that of the spatial lag model, and the spatial error model had stronger ability to interpret variables. The LIK value of the spatial error model of each sample area was larger, the value of AIC, SC and Moran’s I of the model residual were smaller, and the fitting effect of the spatial error model was better than that of the spatial lag model.

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王戈,于强,YANG Di,赵晓婷,赵桂芳,岳德鹏.京津冀城市群生态空间格局变化与地表温度关系研究[J].农业机械学报,2021,52(1):209-218. WANG Ge, YU Qiang, YANG Di, ZHAO Xiaoting, ZHAO Guifang, YUE Depeng. Relationship between Change of Ecological Spatial Pattern and Land Surface Temperature in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2021,52(1):209-218.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-01-10
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