基于Blaney-Criddle方法估算潜在蒸散量的评价与校准
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国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目(2013AA102904)和高等学校学科创新引智计划(111计划)项目(B12007)


Evaluation and Calibration of Blaney-Criddle Method for Estimating Potential Evapotranspiration
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    摘要:

    为提高Blaney-Criddle (BC)方法在陕西关中地区的估算精度,以Penman方法(PE)为标准,利用1960—1999年陕西关中地区6个站点逐日资料对BC方法进行适用性评价和参数修正,并使用2000—2015年资料对修正的BC方法进行验证,得到基于温度的潜在蒸散量估算方法(CBC方法)。结果表明:BC方法计算的月均ETp(潜在蒸散量)在温度较低时低估,在温度较高时高估。通过改进后,CBC与PE方法计算的月均ETp回归曲线的斜率更接近于1(改进前0.685,改进后0.9997)。与PE方法的计算结果相比,改进后BC(CBC)计算月均ETp相对误差由-18.022%~ 16.269%变为1.290%~3.630%,均方根误差由0.529~0.921mm/d降为0.214~0.283mm/d;平均偏差由-0.063~0.601mm/d变为-0.001121~0.000737mm/d。修正前后BC方法计算月均ETp值与PE方法计算值拟合的决定系数由0.942提高到0.966。通过年累计ETp和年内月累计ETp的验证,CBC与PE计算的ETp变化趋势和数值更为接近。综合分析表明,CBC方法能够显著提高潜在蒸散量的计算精度(ETp),可以应用于陕西关中地区ETp的计算。

    Abstract:

    The objective was to improve the estimation accuracy of the Blaney-Criddle (BC) method to estimate potential evapotranspiration (ETp) in Guanzhong region of Shaanxi Province, and search for some theoretical basis for the choice of formulas. The Penman (PE) method is widely used all over the world to estimate ETp since it can provide the satisfactory estimations, but it also requires a lot of climatic variables and complicated nonlinear processes in computing ETp. Developing a simple and appropriate method with limited data is urgent. Accordingly, the Blaney-Criddle method was modified. The calibration process used the daily climatic data from 1960 to 1999 and the verification process used the daily climatic data from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that the BC method underestimated the values of monthly ETp when the temperature was low and the BC method overestimated the values of monthly ETp when the temperature was high. By modifying the original BC method, the slope of regression curve of ETp values between the PE method and modified BC method became 0.9997 from 0.685. Moreover, the trend of ETp estimated by the modified BC method was more similar to that estimated by PE method. Compared with the PE method estimation results, the relative error of the ETp values estimated by modified BC method became 1.290%~3.630% from -18.022%~16.269%; the root mean square error of the ETp values decreased from 0.529~0.921mm/d to 0.214~0.283mm/d; the average deviation value became -0.001121~0.000737mm/d from -0.063~0.601mm/d; and the fitting decision coefficient increased from 0.942 to 0.966. It was found that the values of ETp estimated by the modified BC method agreed better with that estimated by the PE method by comparing the year and monthly ETp values. Therefore, the modified BC method can significantly improve the estimation accuracy of the ETp values and it is applicable in Guanzhong region of Shaanxi Province in China.

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冯浩,刘匣,褚晓升,丁奠元,余坤,李毅.基于Blaney-Criddle方法估算潜在蒸散量的评价与校准[J].农业机械学报,2017,48(6):159-167.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-10-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-01-22
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