于强,岳德鹏,Di Yang,张启斌,马欢,李宇彤.基于EnKF-MCRP模型的生态用地扩张模拟研究[J].农业机械学报,2016,47(9):285-293.
Yu Qiang,Yue Depeng,Di Yang,Zhang Qibin,Ma Huan,Li Yutong.Simulation on Ecological Land Use Expansion Based on EnKF-MCRP Model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2016,47(9):285-293.
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基于EnKF-MCRP模型的生态用地扩张模拟研究   [下载全文]
Simulation on Ecological Land Use Expansion Based on EnKF-MCRP Model   [Download Pdf][in English]
投稿时间:2016-06-16  
DOI:10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2016.09.039
中文关键词:  生态用地  数据同化  EnKF-MCRP模型  磴口县
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41371189)和“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD16B00)
作者单位
于强 北京林业大学 
岳德鹏 北京林业大学 
Di Yang 佛罗里达大学 
张启斌 北京林业大学 
马欢 北京林业大学 
李宇彤 国土资源部土地整治中心 
中文摘要:以生态脆弱区典型县域磴口县为研究区,基于2002、2007、2012、2015年4期遥感影像解译数据,将数据同化技术引入生态源地的变化模拟中,考虑生态障碍和生态阻力构建EnKF-MCRP模型,进行磴口县生态用地的变化模拟。结果表明,引入数据同化技术的EnKF-CA/Markov模型的模拟总精度达到82.4%,数据同化能够减少误差的积累。根据扩展能力磴口县生态源地共分为5个等级,其中3、4、5级生态源地的空间布局形成东北-西南、西北-西南的沙漠化防护格局。引入生态源地变化的EnKF-MCRP模型的生态用地扩张模拟精度最高,生态用地面积与空间布局最接近实际情况,方差达到0.4。此研究可为当前以及未来的生态用地规划和管理提供科学根据。
Yu Qiang  Yue Depeng  Di Yang  Zhang Qibin  Ma Huan  Li Yutong
Beijing Forestry University,Beijing Forestry University,University of Florida,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing Forestry University and Center for Land Consolidation, Ministry of Land and Resources
Key Words:ecological land  data assimilation  EnKF-MCRP model  Dengkou County
Abstract:In the ecologically vulnerable area which locates in northwest arid and semiarid areas, ecological land is the important guarantee to maintain the security and stability of regional ecological environment. Studying the simulation of ecological land use change is of great significance. Accordingly, based on the typical ecologically vulnerable area—Dengkou County, this paper simulates ecological land use evolution of Dengkou County, using the four remote sensing image interpretation data of 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2015. Taking ecological eco resistance barriers and EnKF-MCRP model into account, an ecological resistance surface was built. The EnKF-MCRP model was constructed to simulate the evolution of ecological sources considering the ecological sources change, ecological source level, distance and base surface resistance characteristics. The results showed that the combination of data assimilation and EnKF-CA/Markov model made a total accuracy of 82.4%, by using ensemble Kalman filter, the model can accumulate less errors and improve the accuracy of simulation, i.e., data assimilation can reduce the accumulation of errors. According to the expandability, ecological sources of Dengkou County were divided into five grades, of which the spatial layout of 3, 4, 5 grades formed the northeast southwest and northwest southwest pattern of desertification prevention. The building of EnKF-MCRP which takes the ecological source evolution into consideration made the highest precision. And the area of ecological sources and spatial distribution were the closest to the reality, of which the variance met 0.4. Different levels of ecological sources and ecological barriers were used to modify the model, which can improve the accuracy of the simulation results. This study could provide a scientific basis for the current and future ecological land planning and management.

Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agriculture Machinery (CSAM), in charged of China Association for Science and Technology (CAST), sponsored by CSAM and Chinese Academy of Agricultural Mechanization Science(CAAMS), started publication in 1957. It is the earliest interdisciplinary journal in Chinese which combines agricultural and engineering. It always closely grasps the development direction of agriculture engineering disciplines and the published papers represent the highest academic level of agriculture engineering in China. Currently, nearly 8,000 papers have been already published. There are around 3,000 papers contributed to the journal each year, but only around 600 of them will be accepted. Transactions of CSAM focuses on a wide range of agricultural machinery, irrigation, electronics, robotics, agro-products engineering, biological energy, agricultural structures and environment and more. Subjects in Transactions of the CSAM have been embodied by many internationally well-known index systems, such as: EI Compendex, CA, CSA, etc.

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