李志华,曾慧毅,聂 超,刘婷婷.一种优化迭代权因子的组合代理模型构建方法[J].农业机械学报,2016,47(7):391-397.
Li Zhihua,Zeng Huiyi,Nie Chao,Liu Tingting.Optimal Iterative Weight Factors Method for Constructing Ensemble of Surrogate Model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2016,47(7):391-397.
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一种优化迭代权因子的组合代理模型构建方法   [下载全文]
Optimal Iterative Weight Factors Method for Constructing Ensemble of Surrogate Model   [Download Pdf][in English]
投稿时间:2015-12-19  
DOI:10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2016.07.053
中文关键词:  元模型  组合代理模型  权因子  预测精度
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51275141、51305112)和浙江省自然科学基金项目(LY14E050026)
作者单位
李志华 杭州电子科技大学 
曾慧毅 杭州电子科技大学 
聂 超 杭州电子科技大学 
刘婷婷 杭州电子科技大学 
中文摘要:代理模型常被用来取代复杂工程问题中的仿真模型。为了提高代理模型的效率、精度和鲁棒性,提出一种优化迭代权因子的组合代理模型构建方法。首先采用留一交叉验证策略和预测平方和P来计算初始权因子,然后对权因子进行迭代,并在每次迭代的过程中对其进行更新,直至最终得到的组合代理模型达到理想的预测精度。为了验证该方法的有效性,对3个基准问题和1个工程实例构建了3种元模型和5种组合代理模型,并从效率、精度和鲁棒性等方面进行性能比较。结果表明本文所提出的方法不仅能得到高精度和高鲁棒性的代理模型,而且能有效缩短模型的构建时间。
Li Zhihua  Zeng Huiyi  Nie Chao  Liu Tingting
Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou Dianzi University and Hangzhou Dianzi University
Key Words:metamodel  ensemble of surrogate model  weight factor  prediction accuracy
Abstract:Surrogate models are often used to replace expensive simulation models in complicated engineering problems. The common practice is to construct multiple metamodels based on a common training data set, evaluate the accuracy, and then use only a single model perceived as the best while discarding the rest. This practice has some shortcomings as it does not take full advantage of the resources devoted to constructing different metamodels and increases the risk of adopting an inappropriate model. However, ensemble technique is an effective way to make up for the shortfalls of traditional strategy. In order to improve the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of the surrogate model, an optimal iterative weight factors method for constructing ensemble of surrogate model was proposed. At first, the leave one out cross validation strategy and PRESS criterion were presented to calculate initial weight factors. Then, an iterative process for the weight factors was conducted and at the same time the weight factors were updated until an ideal prediction accuracy of the ultimate ensemble of surrogate model was reached. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, three meta models and five ensembles of surrogate model for three benchmark problems and an engineering problem were constructed to compare their performances of efficiency, accuracy and robustness. Results show that the proposed method can not only get a higher accuracy and robustness surrogate, but also shorten the time of constructing surrogate model evidently.

Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agriculture Machinery (CSAM), in charged of China Association for Science and Technology (CAST), sponsored by CSAM and Chinese Academy of Agricultural Mechanization Science(CAAMS), started publication in 1957. It is the earliest interdisciplinary journal in Chinese which combines agricultural and engineering. It always closely grasps the development direction of agriculture engineering disciplines and the published papers represent the highest academic level of agriculture engineering in China. Currently, nearly 8,000 papers have been already published. There are around 3,000 papers contributed to the journal each year, but only around 600 of them will be accepted. Transactions of CSAM focuses on a wide range of agricultural machinery, irrigation, electronics, robotics, agro-products engineering, biological energy, agricultural structures and environment and more. Subjects in Transactions of the CSAM have been embodied by many internationally well-known index systems, such as: EI Compendex, CA, CSA, etc.

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