Current agricultural greenhouse development still faces issues such as excessively long facility service life, aging equipment, unclear distribution and quantity, and irrational siting of some newly built greenhouses, resulting in low resource utilization efficiency and difficulty in forming highly efficient intensive production areas. To address these problems, the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform with Landsat 5 TM and Sentinel-2 MSI imagery were utilized, employing random forest, support vector machine, and maximum likelihood classification algorithms to extract the spatial distribution of agricultural greenhouses in Shandong Province over the past 15 years and analyze their age. Furthermore, driving force analysis was conducted considering natural and socioeconomic factors—elevation, rivers, soil organic matter, roads, and population—to identify dominant influences. Finally, the development potential of agricultural greenhouses was quantitatively evaluated, and an optimized layout scheme was proposed. Results showed that the random forest algorithm achieved the highest classification accuracy, with overall accuracy consistently ranging from 83.45% to 92.83% and Kappa coefficients between 0.7531 and 0.8846, demonstrating stronger robustness and adaptability. The area of agricultural greenhouses in Shandong Province was increased from 100440hm2 in 2008 to 473306.67hm2 in 2023, a growth of approximately 471%. Old greenhouses used for over 10 years covered 70606.67hm2, while those over 15 years accounted for 29493.33hm2. Greenhouse development was significantly influenced by policies, modern road networks, and soil organic matter. Potential evaluation identified three key development zones: central Shandong (centered on Shouguang City and Zhangdian District), eastern Shandong (focused on Pingdu City and Laixi City), and southern Shandong (anchored by Lanling County and Xuecheng District). The province can be optimized into core development zones (e.g., Shouguang in Weifang for modern greenhouse expansion), recommended development zones (e.g., Pingdu and Lanling for moderate new construction to form growth poles), retrofit/relocation zones (e.g., Weifang and Liaocheng for upgrading or phased relocation of aging greenhouses), and general development zones (for ecological protection and specialty agriculture). The findings can provide data and decision-making support for optimizing agricultural greenhouse layouts, facilitating rural revitalization.