基于MEA-BPNN的西北旱区参考作物蒸散量预报模型
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国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400206)、国家自然科学基金项目(51779161)、“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAD24B01)和2017年中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2016CDDY-S04-SCU)


Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Prediction Model of Arid Areas of Northwest China Based on MEA-BPNN
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    摘要:

    为有效提高西北旱区参考作物蒸散量(Reference crop evapotranspiration,ET0)预报精度,在西北旱区选择5个代表性气象站点,构建10种基于思维进化算法(Mind evolutionary algorithm,MEA)优化的误差反向传波神经网络(Back propagation neural network,BPNN)ET0预报模型,并将其与Hargreaves-Samani模型、Irmak模型和48-PM模型等3种在西北旱区ET0计算精度较高的模型进行比较。结果表明:在不同输入的情况下MEA-BPNN模型模拟精度具有相对较高水平,其中MEA-BPNN1(输入最高气温Tmax、最低气温Tmin、相对湿度RH、日照时数n和距地面2m高处的风速u2)、MEA-BPNN2(输入Tmax、Tmin、n和u2)及MEA-BPNN3(输入Tmax、Tmin、RH和u2)模型的R2、NSE均大于0.96,RMSE、MAE也分别小于0.34、0.25mm/d,以上3种MEA-BPNN模型的整体评价指标(Global performance indicator,GPI)排名分别为1、2、3;MEA-BPNN7(输入Tmax、Tmin和u2)的R2、NSE分别为0.9662、0.9622, RMSE、MAE分别为0.3610、0.2761mm/d,模拟精度较高;MEA-BPNN模型可移植性的分析表明: MEA-BPNN模型在西北旱区具有较强的泛化能力,基于不同站点数据构建的预报模型也有较高精度;在相同输入情况下MEA-BPNN模型模拟精度均高于Hargreaves-Samani模型、Irmak模型和48-PM模型。因此,在气象资料缺乏情景下MEA-BPNN模型可作为西北旱区ET0计算的推荐模型,可为实时精准灌溉预报的实现提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    To effectively improve the prediction accuracy of the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) in the arid regions of Northwest China, five representative meteorological sites were selected in the arid Northwest China to construct 10 errors back propagation neural network (BPNN) optimized by mind evolutionary algorithm (MEA) model. This model was used to forecast ET0 and compared with the three models of Hargreaves-Samani model, Irmak model and 48-PM model which had higher accuracy in the northwest arid region. The results showed that the simulation accuracy of the MEA-BPNN model was basically high at different input levels, including MEA-BPNN1 (input Tmax, Tmin, RH, n and u2), MEA-BPNN2 (input Tmax, Tmin, n and u2) and MEA-BPNN3 (input Tmax, Tmin, RHand u2). The determination coefficient R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient NSE of the models were greater than 0.96, RMSE and MAE was less than 0.34mm/d and 0.25mm/d. The GPI rankings of the above three MEA-BPNN models were 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The R2 and NSE of MEA-BPNN7 (input Tmax, Tmin, and u2) was 0.966 2 and 0.962 2, RMSE and MAE was 0.361 0mm/d and 0.2761mm/d, respectively, and the simulation accuracy was high. The analysis of the portability of the MEA-BPNN model showed that the MEA-BPNN model in the arid northwestern China had strong generalization ability, and the forecasting model constructed based on different site data also had high accuracy. The simulation accuracy of the MEA-BPNN model was higher than that of the Hargreaves-Samani model, Irmak model and 48-PM model with the same input. Therefore, in the absence of meteorological data, the MEA-BPNN model can be used as a recommended model for the calculation of ET0 in the northwest arid regions, which can provide a scientific basis for realtime accurate irrigation forecasting.

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崔宁博,魏俊,赵璐,张青雯,龚道枝,王明田.基于MEA-BPNN的西北旱区参考作物蒸散量预报模型[J].农业机械学报,2018,49(8):228-236,307. CUI Ningbo, WEI Jun, ZHAO Lu, ZHANG Qingwen, GONG Daozhi, WANG Mingtian. Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Prediction Model of Arid Areas of Northwest China Based on MEA-BPNN[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2018,49(8):228-236,307.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-03-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-08-10
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