基于EFAST的CERES-Wheat模型土壤参数敏感性分析
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国家自然科学基金项目(51879072)、江苏省水利科技项目(2018051)和贵州省水利科技项目(KT201817)


Sensitivity Analysis of Soil Input Parameters of CERES-Wheat Model Based on EFAST Method
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    摘要:

    为了定量讨论DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型中土壤参数对模拟结果的影响,运用扩展傅里叶幅度检验(EFAST)法,对影响冬小麦生产及生态系统中氮素分布的2类模型参数进行了敏感性研究,重点探讨了模型中土壤参数变化对模型模拟的冬小麦产量、冬小麦氮素分布、土壤氮素分布及土壤氮素转化的影响。结果表明:对冬小麦产量、地上生物量及收获指数影响最敏感的土壤参数为田间持水率,其次是土壤酸碱度;对冬小麦地上生物量中氮素含量影响最敏感的土壤参数为土壤酸碱度,对冬小麦籽粒中氮素含量影响最敏感的参数为田间持水率,对冬小麦根和叶中氮素含量影响最敏感的土壤参数则为土壤总氮含量;对作物吸收土壤中氮素影响最敏感的参数是径流曲线数,对土壤氮淋失量影响最敏感的参数为排水比率,对土壤中硝态氮、铵态氮含量影响最敏感的参数为土壤总氮含量;对土壤中氮素矿化和硝化影响最敏感的土壤参数为土壤总氮含量,对土壤氮素反硝化影响最敏感的参数为排水比率,对氨挥发量影响最敏感的参数为土壤总氮含量,氨挥发量对排水比率和土壤酸碱度的变化也较敏感。当侧重于模拟冬小麦产量及作物氮素研究时,原需测量的15个土壤参数可简化为4个,而当侧重于土壤氮素转化及分布研究时,可简化为重点测量的9个参数。本研究可降低CERES-Wheat模型土壤参数获取难度,方便模型本地化、区域化应用。

    Abstract:

    In order to quantify the impacts of soil input parameters on the sensitivity of CERES-Wheat output variables, the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST) method was used to study the global sensitivity analysis. The most sensitive parameters for yield, tops biomass and harvest index of winter wheat were soil field capacity (SDUL), followed by soil pH (SLHB) among the soil parameters. SDUL was also the most sensitive parameter for nitrogen content in grains, while SLHB was the most sensitive parameter for nitrogen content in tops biomass of winter wheat. Among the soil parameters, the most sensitive parameters for nitrogen content in root and leaf of winter wheat were both total nitrogen in soil (SLNI), with the first order sensitivity index value of 0.67 and 0.59, respectively. The runoff curve number (SLRO) and SDUL were more sensitive for the plant uptake nitrogen content than other soil parameters. Soil drainage rate (SLDR) was the most sensitive parameter for nitrogen leached during season, while SLNI was the most sensitive to total soil nitrate nitrogen and ammonium nitrogen content. SLNI was also the most sensitive parameter for nitrogen mineralization content and nitrification content, while the nitrogen denitrification content was most affected by SLDR. The ammonia volatilization content was sensitive to SLNI, SLHB and SLDR. Furthermore, all 15 soil parameters that should have been measured can be simplified to four parameters when the research focus on the simulation of winter wheat production and crop nitrogen, and all the soil parameters can be simplified to nine parameters when the research focus on the simulation of soil nitrogen transformation and distribution. The research result provided a feasible method to decrease the difficulty in obtaining soil data for CERES-Wheat model, which can benefit model localization and regional application.

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崔金涛,丁继辉,YESILEKIN Nebi,邓升,邵光成.基于EFAST的CERES-Wheat模型土壤参数敏感性分析[J].农业机械学报,2020,51(12):276-283. CUI Jintao, DING Jihui, YESILEKIN Nebi, DENG Sheng, SHAO Guangcheng. Sensitivity Analysis of Soil Input Parameters of CERES-Wheat Model Based on EFAST Method[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(12):276-283.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-12-10
  • 出版日期: 2020-12-10