基于云模型的安徽省干湿指数时空分布特征研究
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安徽省教育厅高校自然科学重点项目(KJ2019A0670)、安徽省自然科学基金项目(1808085QE176)、宿州学院博士科研启动基金项目(2017jb04)、安徽省高校优秀青年人才支持计划重点项目(gxyqZD2016347)、宿州学院产学研项目(2018hx023)和宿州学院重点科研项目(2019yzd01)


Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Dry-Wet Index in Anhui Province Based on Cloud Mode
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    摘要:

    为探究变化背景下安徽省干湿指数时空分布格局,利用安徽省1957—2016年的逐日气象观测数据,在采用区域修正模式的FAO 56 Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散量(ET0)的基础上,通过云模型定量描述近60年安徽省干湿指数(AI)的时空分布特征、均匀性和稳定性。结果表明:安徽省AI、ET0呈现波动下降趋势,倾向率分别为-0.006a-1和-0583mm/a,降水量P呈现1155mm/a的上升趋势,ET0和P的相向趋势造成了AI的逐渐降低,近60年安徽省总体呈现变湿趋势。相较于ET0与AI,P最为离散,稳定性最差。在四季尺度上,以夏季为主导(-0.012a-1)的夏秋冬AI降低为安徽省干湿变化主要特征,AI超熵值由高到低依次为夏季、秋季、春冬季,不确定性逐渐降低;四季ET0变化熵值均低于年均熵值,四季ET0模糊性与随机性较差,冬季ET0具有最大不稳定性;夏冬季节的雨雪增加与春秋季降水量减少是安徽省四季降水格局的主要表现形式,且夏季降水增加趋势显著(2 467mm/a),同时表现出最大的不均匀性和不稳定性。在空间尺度上,AI、ET0和P均呈现皖南至皖北的梯度变化特征,〖JP〗出现非平滑纬度地带性现象,空间上各区域熵与超熵均高于时间序列,空间上AI的分布更为离散、不稳定。

    Abstract:

    Spatiotemporal characteristics of dry-wet change are the key characterization of regional hydrological response under global change. To explore the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of dry-wet index in Anhui Province under the background of global change, spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of aridity index was comprehensively investigated for 15 meteorological stations during 1957—2016 in Anhui Province. Based on the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (ET0) by the FAO 56 Penman-Monteith model with regional correction mode, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics, uniformity and stability of the dry—wet index (AI) in Anhui Province in the past 60 years were quantitatively described by the cloud model. The AI and ET0 in Anhui Province showed a downward trend, with propensity rates of -0.006a-1 and -0583mm/a, respectively, and P showed an upward trend of 1155mm/a. The opposite trend of ET0 and P caused the AI to gradually decrease. Anhui Province generally showed a trend of becoming wet. P was the most discrete and had the worst stability compared with ET0 and AI. On the fourseason scale, summerautumn and winter AI, which was dominated by summer (-0.012a-1), was the main feature of dry-wet change in Anhui Province. The AI superentropy value with descending order was summer, autumn, spring and winter, and the uncertainty was gradually reduced. The change entropy of ET0 in the four seasons was lower than the annual average entropy. The ambiguity and randomness of the four seasons’ ET0 were poor. The winter ET0 had the greatest instability. The increase of rain and snow in summer and winter and the decrease of precipitation in spring and autumn were the four seasons’ characteristics in Anhui Province. The main form of the pattern and the summer precipitation were increased significantly (2467mm/a), while showing the greatest unevenness and instability. Spatial scale, AI, and P showed the reference crop evapotranspiration variation gradient of Wannan to Wanbei appeared nonsmooth latitudes phenomenon, the spatial region of each entropy size was higher than the super time series entropy, and the spatial distribution characteristics of AI were more discrete and unstable.

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孙朋,郭忠臣,刘娜,戴洪宝,苏海民.基于云模型的安徽省干湿指数时空分布特征研究[J].农业机械学报,2020,51(4):147-155. SUN Peng, GUO Zhongchen, LIU Na, DAI Hongbao, SU Haimin. Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Dry-Wet Index in Anhui Province Based on Cloud Mode[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(4):147-155.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-07-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-04-10
  • 出版日期: 2020-04-10