基于BRT_DC_Pd模型的土地利用模拟研究
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国家自然科学基金项目(41371189)和“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD16B00)


Simulation of Landuse Based on BRT_DC_Pd Model
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    摘要:

    通过对Dyna-CLUE模型进行改进,嵌入BRT模型和Patch-dynamics模型,形成BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型。以生态脆弱区典型县域磴口县为研究区,基于2006年磴口县土地利用情况,应用BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型,对磴口县2016年的土地利用状况进行模拟预测,并与目前应用较多的Logistic_CA_Markov模型进行对比验证。结果表明,Logistic_CA_Markov模型模拟结果的Kappa系数为0.7214,BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型模拟结果的Kappa系数为0.7826,2个组合模型的模拟结果精度较高,均与真实解译结果具有高度一致性,但BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型模拟精度更高,结果更优。因此,将BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型应用于当地土地利用变化模拟预测,具有一定可行性,可为当地生态治理以及相关政策的实施提供一定的参考。

    Abstract:

    The BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was formed by improving Dyna-CLUE model, by embedding BRT model and Patch-dynamics model. Based on the landuse situation in Dengkou County in 2006, a case study was conducted in Dengkou County, a typical county in the ecologically fragile region. The BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was used to simulate the landuse situation in 2016 in Dengkou County and compared with the Logistic_CA_Markov model which was currently used more. The results showed that the Kappa coefficient of the Logistic_CA_Markov model was 0.7214, and the Kappa coefficient of the BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was 0.7826. The simulation results of the two combinatorial models were highly accurate and both were highly consistent with the real interpretation results. BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model had high simulation accuracy and good result. Therefore, it is feasible to apply the BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model to the simulation and forecast of local landuse change in order to provide some reference for the implementation of local ecological control and related policies.

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王宇航,于强,岳德鹏,张启斌,马欢.基于BRT_DC_Pd模型的土地利用模拟研究[J].农业机械学报,2018,49(3):225-234. WANG Yuhang, YU Qiang, YUE Depeng, ZHANG Qibin, MA Huan. Simulation of Landuse Based on BRT_DC_Pd Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2018,49(3):225-234.

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  • 收稿日期:2017-12-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-03-10
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