基于EFAST的不同生产水平下WOFOST模型参数敏感性分析
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国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300801)和国家自然科学基金项目(41571217)


Sensitivity Analysis of WOFOST Model Crop Parameters under Different Production Levels Based on EFAST Method
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    摘要:

    为探讨参数敏感性分析结果在区域尺度上表现出的不确定性问题,在温带季风气候类型黄淮海平原旱作区不同积温区内选取黄骅、商丘和驻马店3个站点,基于气象和作物生育期数据以及土壤实测数据,采用EFAST(Extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test)方法,对WOFOST模型冬小麦和夏玉米参数进行全局敏感性分析,并对2种作物在不同生产水平和不同气候条件下的参数敏感性排序进行一致性检验。结果表明:冬小麦产量在潜在生产水平下主要敏感参数有叶龄的低温阈值(TBASE)、储存器官同化物转化效率(CVO)、总同化速率在低温3℃时的校正因子(TMNFTB3)等,在水分限制生产水平下主要敏感参数有蒸散速率修正因子(CFET)和储存器官同化物转化效率(CVO)等;夏玉米在2种生产水平下产量敏感参数差异不大,主要为总同化速率低温10℃时的校正因子(TMNFTB10)、每日温度为40℃时单叶片同化CO2的初始光能利用效率(EFFTB40)、35℃时叶片生命周期(SPAN)等;冬小麦、夏玉米在不同生产水平下的TDCC系数(Topdown concordance coefficient)分别为0.82和0.98,P均小于0.01,参数敏感性排序的一致性均较高;冬小麦和夏玉米在不同气候条件下潜在生产水平TDCC系数分别为0.92和0.98,P均小于0.01,一致性较高,水分限制生产水平TDCC系数分别为0.61和0.86,P均小于0.01,一致性较差。WOFOST模型不同作物间参数敏感性差异明显,不同生产水平对参数敏感性的影响较小,但受水分胁迫程度的影响,不同气候条件对参数敏感性影响较大,且对不同生产水平下参数敏感性的影响不同,这主要与不同时空下的气候条件差异有关。

    Abstract:

    Aiming to investigate the uncertainty of parameter sensitivity analysis results at the regional scale due to management measures, climatic conditions, etc., three stations, including Huanghua, Shangqiu and Zhumadian under temperate monsoon climate were selected in different accumulated temperature zones in the Huang-Huai-Hai dry farming region, and extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST) method was used for analyzing the sensitivity of winter wheat and summer corn parameters in WOFOST model based on the data from agricultural meteorological stations and field sampling, and then the consistency test of the sensitivity ranking of the two crops under different production levels and different climatic conditions were performed. The results showed that the main sensitive parameters of winter wheat yield at the potential production level were the lower threshold temperature for aging of leaves (TBASE), efficiency of conversion into storage (CVO), and the reduction factor of gross assimilation rate at 3℃ (TMNFTB3), while the parameters related to the evapotranspiration correction factor (CFET) and efficiency of conversion into storage (CVO) affected considerably simulated yield under water limited production level. There was no significant difference in the sensitivity parameters of summer maize yield at the two production levels, which involved the reduction factor of gross assimilation rate at 10℃ (TMNFTB10), lightuse efficiency of single leaf as daily mean temperature at 40℃ (EFFTB40), life span of leaves growing at 35℃ (SPAN); the topdown concordance coefficient (TDCC)values of winter wheat and summer maize at different production levels were 0.82 and 0.98, respectively, P values were less than 0.01, indicated that the parameter sensitivity ranking had good consistency; under potential production levels, the TDCC values of winter wheat and summer maize with different climatic conditions were 092 and 098, respectively, and the P values were all less than 001, the TDCC values under the water limited production levels were 0.61 and 0.86, respectively, and the P values were all less than 0.01. The results indicated that the WOFOST model simulated yield had obvious differences in sensitivity among different crop parameters, different production levels had little effect on parameter sensitivity, but it was affected by the degree of water stress, different climatic conditions had a great influence on the sensitivity of parameters, and had different effects on the sensitivity of parameters under different production levels, which were mainly related to the differences in climatic conditions and time and space.

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兴安,卓志清,赵云泽,李勇,黄元仿.基于EFAST的不同生产水平下WOFOST模型参数敏感性分析[J].农业机械学报,2020,51(2):161-171. XING An, ZHUO Zhiqing, ZHAO Yunze, LI Yong, HUANG Yuanfang. Sensitivity Analysis of WOFOST Model Crop Parameters under Different Production Levels Based on EFAST Method[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(2):161-171.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-09-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-02-10
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