Prior information such as expert judgment is needed in Bayesian reliability estimation. General Bayesian method cannot deal with expert judgment when it is fuzzy. Under this circumstance, a new method was proposed. First a belief distribution was deduced from test data, and it was regarded as prior distribution. Then the expert judgment was taken as fuzzy observation, and reliability parameters were obtained via Bayesian theorem.
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赵韩,方艮海.模糊先验信息下Bayes可靠性评估方法[J].农业机械学报,2007,38(4):151-153.[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2007,38(4):151-153.